A leading scientific advisory body has released a report supporting the progression of a scientific field that may help governments hold fossil fuel companies accountable for extreme weather-related damages. This field, known as extreme event attribution, examines how much global warming exacerbates specific weather events.

Experts have recognized for some time that global warming, primarily from burning fossil fuels, increases the severity and frequency of certain extreme weather conditions. However, it is only in the last two decades that they have developed precise tools to measure how significantly global warming influences specific events in particular locations.

The recent report, published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, does not provide direct policy or legal recommendations. Still, it acknowledges the potential relevance of attribution research in various legal proceedings. For instance, Multnomah County in Oregon has cited an attribution study in a $50 billion lawsuit against oil companies, arguing that a record-breaking heatwave in 2021 would have been ‘virtually impossible’ without human-induced climate change.

As more legal actions emerge, allies of the fossil fuel sector have criticized researchers involved in attribution studies, accusing them of bias against oil companies. This criticism was echoed by Energy in Depth, an initiative of the Independent Petroleum Association of America, which described the National Academies report as ‘part of a well-funded litigation campaign.’

The National Academies’ report highlights significant advancements in researchers’ methods for extreme event attribution. Scientists have refined their techniques and improved their data, enhancing the certainty with which they can attribute heatwave intensities, for example, to human activities as opposed to natural atmospheric variations.