South Carolina Republicans are voting to choose their candidate for the U.S. Senate seat previously held by Lindsey Graham. This primary has been marked by uncertainty with no clear frontrunner.
Current Standings
Interim Senator Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, is leading in some polls, while others show her with a narrow advantage. Representative Ralph Norman has topped at least one recent survey. The primary includes nine candidates, making a runoff on August 25 a possibility, as South Carolina requires a majority win to avoid one.
Darline Graham’s Campaign
Appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to fill her brother’s seat after his unexpected death on July 11, Darline Graham has limited political experience. She aims to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda and has his endorsement. At her campaign launch, she expressed surprise at entering politics, emphasizing her commitment to Trump’s policies.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee supports Graham, airing TV ads on her behalf. During a recent debate, she aligned herself with Trump on issues like border security and potential changes to Senate filibuster rules. She also highlighted her stance on healthcare transparency to address financial pressures on families.
Poll Analysis
Polls have not provided a decisive leader. Ralph Norman, a five-term House member, campaigns as an experienced conservative. Russell Fry, another Republican candidate, aims for a runoff. Former Governor Mark Sanford relies on his longstanding reputation in the state.
A survey by Quantus Insights from August 9 showed Graham leading with 33% support among 636 likely voters. Norman and Fry each had 20%, while Sanford received 17%. A previous co/efficient poll showed Graham at 30%, Fry at 16%, and Norman at 15%.
Emerson College Polling found Norman in the lead at 22%, followed by Graham at 19%. The numbers suggest Graham and Norman are leading, while Fry remains close enough to challenge in a potential runoff. Sanford has yet to convert his recognition into a strong polling position.
Prediction markets favor Graham slightly more than public polling. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, she had a higher implied probability of winning the nomination compared to her competitors.
Graham’s Political Approach
Darline Graham’s name recognition and Trump’s endorsement are tested against seasoned opponents. Unlike her brother, she remained largely out of politics, working in state government. Her time in Washington has limited her campaign activities in South Carolina, a decision she justifies as prioritizing her work in the Senate.
She has participated in limited public events, supporting Trump’s initiatives like altering filibuster rules during debates. Her media interactions have been with Fox News and local outlets.
The Republican nominee will likely succeed in November. South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Trump had an 18-point lead in the last election. The Democratic candidate, Annie Andrews, will challenge the eventual Republican nominee.