Sweden is gearing up for a pivotal election on Sunday. This election is drawing global attention because it may change Sweden’s political course and challenge the country’s established norms. As a newly joined member of NATO, the stakes are particularly high. In recent years, right-wing populism has been on the rise across Europe. Sweden is part of this trend.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right coalition will face off against former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s center-left bloc. A major talking point is the potential inclusion of the Sweden Democrats in the government. Historically associated with far-right ideologies, this party has been edging closer to the political center. Since entering the parliament in 2010, it has gained popularity. In 2022, it became Sweden’s second-largest party, granting conditional support to Kristersson’s government. While they weren’t part of the cabinet, their influence shaped significant policies like immigration and crime.

Kristersson aims to form a majority government. This time, he is offering ministerial positions to the Sweden Democrats if the right bloc wins. Thus, the election is seen as a test of the Sweden Democrats’ political maturity. Swedish voters are faced with the question of accepting a party once marginalized by the political mainstream into executive roles.

According to Andreas Önnerfors, a professor of intellectual history at Linnaeus University, the focus has shifted from tangible political challenges to the future configuration of the government. Poll results are tight. A poll conducted from September 2–10 by Indikator Opinion showed 50.8% support for the center-left coalition and 47.6% for the right coalition.

From Fringe to Mainstream

For years, Sweden’s political establishment maintained a distance from the Sweden Democrats due to its extremist background. In 2018, Kristersson assured Holocaust survivor Hédi Fried that he would avoid cooperation with the party. They openly acknowledge their early ties to neo-Nazi movements. Yet, under Jimmie Åkesson’s leadership since 2005, efforts have been made to expel radicals and moderate their stance. Now they position themselves as a conventional right-wing party.

The Sweden Democrats advocate for policies like deportation of undocumented individuals, stricter citizenship criteria, mandatory assimilation, and limiting social benefits to citizens. They have effectively attracted both right-leaning and working-class voters.

“They have merged typical right-wing positions with typical Labour or Social Democratic positions… That makes sense among ordinary people,” Andreas Önnerfors remarked.

Key Issues: Immigration and Crime

Through the Sweden Democrats, tougher immigration and crime policies became crucial topics in Swedish politics. Their popularity reflects broader changes in society relating to these issues.

Professor Niklas Bolin from Mid Sweden University noted a shift towards restriction in immigration and crime policies. This shift isn’t exclusive to right-wing parties. The Social Democrats have also adapted their stance.

Sweden faced 163,000 asylum applications during the 2015 migration crisis. With approximately 11 million citizens, this was one of Europe’s highest per-capita influxes. Consequently, issues of integration, segregation, and increased gang violence surfaced. Since then, policies have transformed significantly.

The Swedish government reports asylum immigration at its lowest since 1985. Crime rates, particularly gang violence, have decreased. Official statistics show shootings falling from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025, continuing downward. However, the political aftermath of this violence remains significant.

Bolin highlights the Sweden Democrats’ solid electoral foundation. Immigration and integration issues continue to attract voters. Additionally, concerns about crime and dissatisfaction with established parties bolster their support.

“Their support is particularly strong among men, working-class voters, and voters outside the larger cities,” Bolin commented.

Historically, Sweden has earned a reputation for low crime, a robust welfare system, and liberal policies on equality and immigration. Sunday’s election signifies a moment of assessment. Voters will determine how far political landscapes have shifted, and if a once-excluded party is prepared to govern.