I have decided to challenge ChatGPT to a betting pick contest throughout the NFL season, trying to see who has a better grasp of the odds each week. My plan is to select my top five NFL bets from the available odds board, then have ChatGPT do the same. We will track our records over the season to see who truly understands betting strategies.

Expectations and The Challenge

I anticipate that ChatGPT will outperform me. Its access to a vast amount of data should provide it with insights that I lack. If it cannot outdo me in picks, it might call into question the predictions that AI will dominate various fields. Teams like the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Washington Commanders headline our betting showdown with a total of ten Week 1 picks.

The lines utilized will reflect the best available numbers at the time of our selections. Though I can complain about bad luck, my record will remain unchanged. ChatGPT’s errors are considered wrong rather than unlucky.

My Five Picks

• Chicago Bears -3 (-106)
  Analysis: The Bears showed potential with a near NFC Championship appearance last year. Despite the Panthers making the playoffs, they may face negative regression.
• Browns–Jaguars Under 40½ (-110)
  Analysis: Points seem hard to come by, especially considering the Week 1 under trend which shows a 65% success rate over the past five seasons.
• Washington Commanders +5½ (-106)
  Analysis: Washington’s potential rebound season starts against the Eagles, who may experience setbacks. The addition of Stefon Diggs boosts their offense.
• Dolphins–Raiders Under 41 (-110)
  Analysis: Similar to the Browns-Jaguars game, scoring appears limited due to unsettled offenses.
• Green Bay Packers ML (+110)
  Analysis: The temptation of betting on an underdog like the Packers is high. Green Bay is a better team facing Minnesota’s new quarterback, which may take time to mesh.

ChatGPT’s Picks

• Houston Texans +1½ (-108)
  Analysis: Houston’s defense could impede Buffalo’s Josh Allen, with a predicted close match that favors Houston.
• Buccaneers–Bengals Under 50½ (-108)
  Analysis: Given the new defensive additions and limited preseason plays, a high scoring threshold appears challenging.
• Detroit Lions -7 (-106)
  Analysis: Detroit’s offensive strength and New Orleans’ weak pass protection make the Lions favorite, with a push possible.
• Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110)
  Analysis: Projected margin and Arizona’s defensive shortcomings suggest a Chargers cover with points to spare.
• Green Bay Packers ML (+110)
  Analysis: Green Bay shows a favorable win probability against Minnesota, enhancing their moneyline attraction.

Using GPT-5.6 Sol Max mode, I provided the odds board at 6 p.m. ET Saturday to formulate these picks. Throughout the season, I’ll continue updating our records and posing the question of whether humans or AI are better at NFL betting.

Dan Zaksheske, a reporter at OutKick, challenges ChatGPT in this NFL betting extravaganza.