Threats from El Niño and King Tides
A rare convergence of a strong El Niño, intense king tides, and climate-induced sea level rise threatens California’s coast with exceptional flooding this winter. Increased tides are already noticeable, causing erosion, damaging infrastructures, and unearthing buried coastal elements.
Jonathan Warrick, a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist, noted El Niño typically leads to increased rainfall in Southern California but also raises sea levels. Warmer ocean waters during El Niño can elevate sea levels up to a foot, creating risks for coastal areas.
Sea levels around San Francisco Bay have already increased by about a foot over 125 years, a change linked to climate change. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UC, expressed concern about potential record-high sea levels this winter.
The Impact of Sea Level Rise
Historical data show that major El Niño events in the past caused record sea level rises in San Francisco Bay. Warrick warned that elevated sea levels can exacerbate coastal erosion and impact infrastructure.
Rainwater struggling to drain due to higher ocean levels can lead to increased flooding risks. Recent NASA data revealed significant sea level rises off the coast of Latin America, indicative of the expanding ocean waters due to warming.
California’s Coastal Changes
Parts of California’s coast experienced marine heat waves unrelated to El Niño, but recent warming may be linked to El Niño according to NOAA’s marine heat wave tracker.
Recent tides exceeded official forecasts, measuring higher at various locations along the California coast. These increased tides, coupled with El Niño’s effects, could lead to elevated flooding risks.
Influence of Lunar Cycles on Tides
Natural lunar cycles, including 18.6-year and 4.4-year tidal cycles, influence tide levels and coincide with this year’s strong king tides during key seasonal periods.
As these cycles peak, coastal regions will experience exceptionally high tides. Mark Merrifield from Scripps Institution emphasized potential coastal impacts around Christmastime.
Historical Context of El Niño Events
The 1982-83 El Niño was historically damaging, highlighting potential threats from stronger offshore storms and higher waves disturbing beaches and coastal infrastructure.
Low-lying areas, such as Mission Beach in San Diego and other coastal communities, face risks of extreme flooding. Jeremy Smith from the California Coastal Commission warned of potential wave-induced flooding into streets and overwhelmed storm drains.
Precipitation Predictions
El Niño’s impact often leads to increased precipitation over Southern California. The National Weather Service anticipates above-average rain for California during the upcoming winter months, echoing the wettest winter recorded during 1982-83.