Democrats’ prospects for regaining control of the House of Representatives have improved, according to the latest Fox News midterm forecast. The updated Power Rankings now give Democrats a slight edge in the battle for the House, less than two months before Election Day.
The revised Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats favored in 212 districts, an increase from July, while Republicans are favored in 206. There are 17 toss-up races that could decide the chamber’s control. Midterm elections often act as a referendum on the current political environment faced by the ruling party. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterms. Democrats had gained 41 seats during President Donald Trump’s first midterm elections in 2018. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Control of the House is likely to be determined by a few competitive districts. Winning control requires 218 seats. Candidates have intensified their campaigns and fundraising with less than two months before voters cast their ballots. Trump has also heightened his efforts to support Republicans in key battleground races. He posted on Truth Social that Democrats aim to “ruin America,” but Republicans would “WIN the Midterms, BIG, and SAVE AMERICA!”
Senate Races Remain Uncertain
Competition for the Senate remains tight. Democrats hold a 53-47 minority, facing a challenging map. A few toss-up races will likely determine control of the upper chamber. These competitive contests in both houses are crucial tests of the political climate during Trump’s second term, as his approval rating has declined amid economic worries and other issues.
Newsweek has contacted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee for comments.
Fox News Power Rankings Update
On Tuesday, Fox News updated its Power Rankings, a predictor index similar to those from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, favoring Democrats in the House race. This represents a slight shift from the July forecast. Experts noted that not a single Democratic seat is classified as a toss-up, while several Republican-held districts face renewed challenges.
Klink Campaigns President, Matt Klink, commented to Newsweek that these fights occur on Republican grounds, revealing challenges facing the party in power. He pointed out the need for Democrats to secure six competitive seats for a majority, calling it a manageable defense for the GOP if they stop losing seats like Ohio 7th.
Fox News moved Ohio’s 7th District from likely Republican to a toss-up, amid controversies surrounding Republican Congressman Max Miller. Despite denying allegations, he remains in the race against Democrat Brian Poindexter. The Cook Political Report also rates this race as a toss-up due to these controversies.
Elsewhere, two other Ohio districts downgraded from solid to likely Republican, signaling increased competition. Redistricting changes impacted Missouri’s 5th District. The Missouri Supreme Court restored the boundaries, moving the seat back into the Democratic column.
Trump’s Approval Rating and Upcoming Midterms
Trump’s approval rating is a key factor as midterms approach. As of September 7, 35 percent of voters approve of his performance, while 59 percent disapprove. This places him at a -24 net approval rating, according to Civiqs’ tracking poll.
Nate Silver’s average shows Trump’s approval rating at -20, with 38.2 percent approval and 58.4 percent disapproval. Voter views on the economy pose potential hurdles for Republicans in the midterms. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found more trust in Democrats handling the economy, potentially affecting turnout.
Polls and Predictions for the House
Several aggregated predictions show Democrats leading for control of the House. Real Clear Polling gives Democrats a 48 percent chance compared to Republicans’ 42.3 percent. The Silver Bulletin indicates a 6.5 percent net advantage for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.
A YouGov/Economist survey found 36 percent supporting Democratic candidates, compared to 31 percent for Republicans, indicating Democratic enthusiasm. Additionally, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show Democrats with significant chances of gaining control over the House.