Two new studies highlight how climate change contributes to the extreme fire weather causing recent wildfires in Spain and France. Human-caused climate change has made Spain’s record-sized fires 20 times more likely and doubled the probability of such conditions in France, according to World Weather Attribution. This organization’s rapid analysis was conducted while the fires were ongoing.
In the past 26 years, warming has tripled the likelihood of severe fire risks in Spain and increased the chances by 40% in France. Another study, released on Thursday, analyzed the increase in Southern Europe’s weather reaching fire-prone levels. The number of such days has more than doubled compared to previous decades. Weather factors considered include temperature, drought, humidity, and wind.
Spain’s Wildfire Conditions
Friederike Otto from Imperial College London noted the significant change in Spain’s fire weather. This summer was Spain’s hottest on record, following a January that promoted plant growth. However, a severe drought increased wildfire fuel. The problem was exacerbated by land abandonment leaving vegetation unmanaged, Otto stated. Meanwhile, France’s Bordeaux region has thick pine groves which burn easily.
World Weather Attribution, which examines climate change’s role in extreme events, completed the study quickly, bypassing initial peer review. Despite this, the methods used are scientifically accepted and often published in peer-reviewed journals.
We have always known that fires ignite more easily and spread more explosively under extreme heat and drought conditions.
Otto’s team calculated how climate change, driven by fossil fuel combustion, increased fire likelihood. By comparing current fire weather severity to past data, they estimated changes at a global temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since pre-industrial times.
Future Implications and Actions
Another study in Scientific Reports indicates that Southern Europe now experiences approximately 25 extreme fire weather days annually, up from about 10 in past decades. These days are 50% more intense than between 1981 and 2010, according to Raúl Cordero, a climate scientist at the University of Groningen.
Fire incidents in Southern Europe had decreased due to improved management from the 1980s to 2018. However, climate change has reversed these gains. Under extreme weather, halting fires is increasingly challenging, regardless of resources.
University of California Merced’s John Abatzaglou emphasized that climate change is already affecting the present. Friederike Otto reiterated the need to eliminate fossil fuel burning, stressing that rising global temperatures will worsen fire conditions beyond our ability to adapt.
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