As Colombia approaches a new political milestone, Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing populist with substantial financial backing but no political experience, seems poised for a narrow victory over left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in the presidential elections. These preliminary results, if confirmed, indicate that within two months, De La Espriella, supported by Trump, will ascend as the leader of Colombia, replacing Gustavo Petro, who earlier made history as the country’s first leftist president.

This situation cannot simply be seen as a return to right-wing politics. Colombia is experiencing a volatile political phase, filled with intense polarization and dissatisfaction with traditional institutions. What De La Espriella represents transcends a basic conservative swing; it encapsulates what Colombians call ‘un salto al vacío’ or a leap into the void.

For over a decade, Latin America has witnessed strong anti-incumbent sentiments. Voters increasingly reject ruling parties, irrespective of their political leanings, driven by economic and security concerns. Citizens appear more inclined to support leaders who promise results over those who adhere to institutional norms. This trend first helped Petro gain power in 2022 and now fuels De La Espriella’s ascent, showcasing a consistent pattern.

Colombia’s chronic issues, including persistent violence, inequality, and a weak state presence across much of the country, have continuously eroded public trust in centrist political forces. Both Petro and De La Espriella have skillfully capitalized on this disillusionment, presenting themselves as outsiders confronting an outdated and ineffective political order.

Petro, during his administration, managed to spotlight key issues like poverty and inequality, including groups often left out of political discussions such as the Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities. However, his governance was marred by internal conflicts, corruption scandals, legislative bypasses, and unfulfilled ambitious promises. His tenure also witnessed fiscal imbalances, crises in health sectors, and a dismantling of Colombia’s historically robust bureaucracy.

Most prominently, Petro’s security initiatives faltered. His Total Peace strategy sought peaceful settlements with rebels and gangs but ended in disappointment. Strengthened armed groups, reduced military morale, skyrocketing coca production, and rising violence led many Colombians to believe the government lost control over the nation.