Mexico is experiencing a notable decline in cartel-related violence as it co-hosts the 2026 FIFA World Cup along with the United States and Canada. Security analyst David Saucedo mentioned in an interview with Aristegui Noticias that drug cartels might have agreed to a ‘World Cup truce’ during the tournament, although there is no public confirmation of such an agreement.

Saucedo pointed out that prosecutors in cities heavily influenced by cartels are observing fewer homicides and violent events since the games started. On June 11, when Mexico began its hosting role with a 2-0 victory over South Africa at Estadio Azteca, the country recorded 30 murders. This was the lowest number of daily murders since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed office in October 2024. Five days later, the figure dropped to 27, marking the lowest daily count in a decade.

In Mexico City and Guadalajara, both hosting several matches, only one homicide was reported in each city. Monterrey, which is also hosting four matches, reported none. Saucedo suggests this calm period coincides with a standstill in major law enforcement activities against cartel leaders. No significant arrests or operations are underway, likely to avoid potential retaliation during the World Cup.

Earlier this year, the situation was different. In February, cartel leader Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera-Cervantes was killed in a military operation, triggering violence that resulted in 70 deaths. Cartel members set vehicles and businesses ablaze, casting doubt on Mexico’s capability to host World Cup matches. In response, Guadalajara deployed nearly 15,000 security personnel, including National Guard troops, near the stadiums to ensure safety.