More than 9 million Cubans are enduring the sixth nationwide blackout this year. The Trump administration’s actions toward Cuba have caused significant economic hardships. After seven months of a naval blockade and extensive secondary sanctions targeting foreign businesses in Cuba, the country’s economy struggles. Hospitals face severe shortages, food is spoiling at ports, transportation is nearly halted, and the situation appears grim for Cubans.
Some analysts speculate on military intervention, but the current economic pressure is already harming Cuba without congressional debate. A war powers resolution is waiting in the Senate, offering a chance to halt potential conflict, curb ambitions for regime change, and aim for a negotiated resolution that fosters real change on the island. Many Cubans seek transformation long denied by political figures on both sides of the Florida Straits. Unauthorized U.S. military action could delay progress and violate legal and humanitarian principles.
This Senate resolution, pushed by Senators Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff, and Ruben Gallego, aims to restrict further military action near U.S. shores. Reflecting public sentiment against nation-building projects seen in Iran, American citizens notably oppose interventions that could endanger U.S. servicemembers and provoke a refugee crisis close to Florida while reinforcing the Cuban regime’s defensive stance.
The Democratic leadership’s avoidance of a related House vote to protect election prospects in Florida indicates the Senate’s pending vote is crucial. In recent weeks, U.S. officials have presented exaggerated claims to support military aggression, which most Americans outside a small group of South Florida exiles oppose. Allegations by Marco Rubio about Cuba’s threat follow various reports and leaks concerning foreign intelligence activities.
The U.S. has intensified intelligence activities around Cuba, detailed plans for potential military deployment, and issued legal actions against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Cuba’s espionage capabilities are overstated, particularly as the country struggles to sway U.S. policy or obtain crucial resources due to sanctions.
A bilateral agreement focusing on Cuban people’s needs rather than regime change could facilitate economic and political improvements. By prioritizing diplomatic channels and adhering to constitutional frameworks, the U.S. stands a better chance of securing interests on the island and avoiding a self-inflicted humanitarian crisis.
Lee Schlenker is affiliated with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, specializing in Latin America.