In April, President Trump declared a cease-fire with Iran, hoping to bring Tehran to the negotiating table through a combination of threats and limited military actions. However, more than a month later, the progress towards a peace deal highlights the limited effectiveness of his strategy. Iran has not significantly altered its stance on its nuclear program.
A potential agreement could result in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an essential channel for oil and gas, which Iran has blocked since the U.S.-Israeli assaults on Iran initiated the conflict in late February. Yet this deal might postpone addressing other complex issues.
Trump conditioned the cease-fire on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials anticipated that easing the blockade would lead to decreased gas prices, reduced domestic dissatisfaction, and weakened Iranian bargaining power. Despite these efforts, Iran has maintained control over the strait.
On April 13, the U.S. enforced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which remains active. The U.S. military reported they have redirected over 100 vessels as part of the blockade.
The following month, Trump initiated “Project Freedom,” aiming to safeguard ships trapped by the Iranian blockade. Two vessels managed to escape under the plan. However, Trump ended the initiative shortly after, as appeals to European allies for support in securing the strait were unsuccessful.
Despite Trump’s repeated threats of further military actions, these were not carried out. The conflict with Iran has been unpopular domestically, including among Republicans, and has led to increased oil and gas prices, affecting Washington’s Arab allies subject to Iranian retaliations.
Image: A billboard in Tehran in early May displaying the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the conflict’s onset. Credit: Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times
As another deadline for Iran to conform to American conditions approached, Trump extended the cease-fire, asserting that talks would proceed. He continued issuing threats primarily through his Truth Social platform, with statements like “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran.
Last week, Trump disclosed a delay in a planned military offensive against Iran due to appeals from Gulf Arab leaders amid what he termed “serious negotiations.”
Iranian leaders feel bolstered by the conflict, believing they have resisted efforts to destabilize the Islamic Republic. They see time as advantageous, particularly due to their influence on global energy prices.
Aaron Boxerman reports on Israel and Gaza for The Times. He is based in Jerusalem.