The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official shared this development on Sunday. However, many questions remain unanswered, particularly regarding the timeline for normal shipping resumption and the impact on oil prices.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, stated that predicting when oil prices will drop is difficult. “Prices are not going to drop quickly,” he mentioned.

Before the conflict began on February 28, around 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passed through the strait. Since then, the strait has been effectively closed, disrupting global energy supply chains.

The agreement’s specifics are still under discussion. It is unclear if Iran will have any control over the strait or if the country will charge a passage fee. This uncertainty is compounded by statements from a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader. He asserted Iran’s “legal right” to manage the strait, indicating the potential for Iran to use its position for financial gains.

Approximately 1,500 to 2,000 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf because of the conflict. Even if the strait reopens officially, challenges remain in restoring shipping activities. The primary issue will be whether shipping companies will trust the peace agreement’s durability and consider it safe to navigate the narrow waterway.