Declining Support Among White Voters
President Donald Trump’s approval rating among white voters has experienced a notable decline since the start of the summer, according to ActiVote polling. This trend is consistent with other surveys indicating a decrease in support from a demographic crucial to his electoral coalition.
ActiVote’s data reveals a distinct shift over several months. In June, white respondents were almost evenly divided, with 47% approving and 49% disapproving of Trump’s job performance. By July, approval had decreased to 39%, while disapproval rose to 54%. In August, 40% approved and 54% disapproved, with the poll based on responses from 1,000 ActiVote users.
Historically, white voters have been a strong support base for Trump. In the 2024 presidential election, 55% of white voters backed Trump according to Pew Research Center, where white voters comprised 71% of the electorate.
Broader Trends in National Approval Ratings
Trump’s wavering support among white voters parallels a broader national decline in approval. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in late August found 36% of Americans approved of Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapproved. A Quinnipiac University poll in July reported similarly low approval ratings.
These surveys come amid growing concerns over economic conditions and dissatisfaction with U.S. involvement in Iran. According to Quinnipiac, 60% of voters opposed military action in Iran, and 49% felt financially worse off compared to the previous year.
Further Insights from Polling Data
An Economist/YouGov poll in July showed Trump’s net approval among white Americans had fallen to minus 14, which YouGov identified as a new low. Among white Americans without college degrees, approval was at 43% while disapproval reached 52%. His net approval among this group fell from plus 27 to minus 6.
Further deterioration was noted in August with his net approval among white Americans dropping to minus 19. YouGov cited this as the lowest level recorded for Trump within the demographic.
Potential Consequences for Midterm Elections
White voters have consistently backed Trump across his presidential campaigns, with solid support levels recorded in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Despite Trump not appearing on the ballot in November, his recent polling numbers could influence Republican turnout and support.
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, highlighted the importance of attracting less consistent Republican voters and independents. He noted that Trump’s low approval numbers might challenge Republican candidates, especially in districts where support has been stable for years.
Continued Republican Support
An Emerson College poll in mid-August showed strong support among Republicans for Trump, with 86% approving of his job performance. Overall, approval among likely voters stood at 40%, with disapproval at 56%. Economist/YouGov noted similarly high approval at 80% among Republicans.
Among Republicans identifying as MAGA supporters, approval was even more robust at 95%.
Trump Criticizes Polling
Trump has been vocal in criticizing polls indicating declining approval. On August 30, he expressed his discontent in a Truth Social post, accusing media of using ‘fake polls’ to demoralize Republicans.
A White House spokesperson directed Newsweek to Trump’s social media post when questioned about the polling figures.
In another post on August 24, Trump accused Democrats of employing fake polls to demoralize Republican voters, asserting that actual polls were ‘tremendous’ and the country’s spirit remained high.
Newsweek editors involved in this story include Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas.