Current Political Scenario for Trump
With the midterm elections approaching, new polling data reveals a challenging environment for President Donald Trump. The data stems from Civiqs’ online tracking poll of registered voters analyzed by Newsweek. Trump’s approval rating as of August 31, 2026, shows a significant decline compared to when he resumed office on January 20, 2025. Nationally, Trump holds a 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval rating, leading to a net approval of minus 24.
State-Level Analysis
State data mirrors the national trend, showing Trump’s strength primarily in Republican areas but weak performance in major battleground states.
Key Points:
- Trump is underwater in all battleground states weeks ahead of the election.
- Support in Tennessee and Utah is net-even, while Indiana falls below water.
- Republican-leaning states have seen larger declines than many Democratic areas since January 2025.
- Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates are among Trump’s weakest demographics.
Red States’ Support
Trump’s strongest ratings remain in deeply Republican states. Wyoming shows a net approval rating of +22, followed by North Dakota and West Virginia both at +15. Alabama, Arkansas, and South Dakota also show positive net approvals. Despite the support, margins have narrowed since he began his second term.
Kentucky serves as an example of this shift, moving from a +23 net approval at the start of Trump’s term to -7 now.
Blue States’ Opposition
Democratic-leaning states show the weakest support for Trump, with Hawaii at -60, Vermont at -52, and Maryland at -51. Other notable states include Massachusetts at -47 and California at -43. In these regions, opposition remains steady through Trump’s second term.
Demographic Insights
Analyzing demographics offers insights into statewide trends. Younger voters show low support; only 22 percent of those aged 18 to 34 approve of Trump, while 70 percent disapprove. The 35 to 49 age group stands at 28 percent approval against 63 percent disapproval.
Independents also disapprove widely, with 62 percent opposed. Women show a 64-to-30 margin of disapproval, while men are slightly more supportive.
Education divides further highlight Trump’s issues with highly educated voters. Among postgraduates, approval is at 23 percent, whereas non-college graduates give him a 39 percent approval rating.
Battleground Trends
Major swing states exhibit challenging figures. Trump is behind in all key battlegrounds, such as:
- Arizona: -14
- Florida: -10
- Georgia: -23
- Nevada: -23
- North Carolina: -16
- Ohio: -17
- Pennsylvania: -18
- Wisconsin: -18
These states displayed stronger support or were split when Trump took office.
Declines in Republican-Leaning States
Most states show a decreasing net approval compared to the start of Trump’s term, with some Republican strongholds experiencing significant drops:
- Kentucky: down 30 points
- Oklahoma: down 27 points
- Wyoming: down 25 points
- Ohio: down 25 points
- Iowa: down 24 points
- Texas: down 23 points
- Nevada: down 23 points
- Florida: down 19 points
Narrowing Margins
States like Tennessee and Utah are at net 0, while others such as Indiana and Nebraska are barely negative. Montana and Oklahoma show minor positive ratings, indicating a consistent pattern.
Comparison to Previous Midterms
Compared to the 2018 midterms, Trump currently holds a weaker standing. At that time, his net approval was minus 10, unlike the present minus 24.
White House Response
The White House continues to downplay these poll figures. Spokesperson Davis Ingle insists on focusing on Trump’s achievements in employment, inflation control, and housing. According to Ingle, Trump is committed to continuing this progress.