Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is in a tight race for the U.S. Senate, facing challenges in garnering support from young voters. Recently, a poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University highlighted notable shifts among voters under 35. Democratic state Representative James Talarico now leads Paxton significantly, with 76% to Paxton’s 18% among likely young voters.
The poll reflects the changing landscape since July, where Talarico previously led 59% to 29%. This marks a substantial shift, with Talarico increasing his lead by 17 points while Paxton’s support fell by 11 points among young voters.
The contest to replace Senator John Cornyn is one of the closest Senate battles in the country. Overall, the Barbara Jordan Center poll suggests Talarico holds a slim lead at 47% compared to Paxton at 46%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown currently stands at 3%, with 4% undecided. This survey, conducted among 1,800 likely voters between September 15 to 19, carries a margin of error of ±2.31 percentage points.
“A Talarico win would break the three-decade drought for statewide Democratic victories in Texas.”
The strategies of both campaigns are under scrutiny. Paxton’s effort to engage younger voters included establishing ‘Students for Paxton’ chapters at various colleges to recruit and activate support. Despite this, polling indicates a decline in young voter backing for him.
Talarico’s campaign strategy focused on engaging through popular online platforms, aiming at demographics traditionally challenging for Democrats. His centrist messaging, visible changes in positions on key issues, such as transgender athletes and energy policy, may be contributing to his appeal.
Younger Vote Dynamics:
- Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott among voters under 35, with a substantial margin.
- Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin also shows strong support against Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, indicating broader young voter trends towards Democratic candidates.
Polling Details and Trends:
- Recent polling by Trafalgar Group and Emerson College echoes the competitive nature of the race, showing narrow margins and different leads.
- The shifting voter demographics, particularly older voters, who historically dominate Texas midterm turnouts, remain crucial for Paxton’s campaign.
Paxton’s retains strong support among older voters and Republicans identifying with the party’s MAGA wing. Talarico, however, seems to be making inroads with moderates and Latino voters, yielding a diversified support base.
Cook Political Report lists Texas among seven toss-up Senate races, indicating the heightened stakes and substantial campaign investments from both parties. The advertising investments reflect the contest’s intensity, with Republican-aligned spending notably higher.
As Election Day approaches, both campaigns are preparing for closing strategies to consolidate and boost their respective voter bases.