Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has shown significant progress in Texas State Senate District 9. A recent private poll by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report demonstrates a major 28-point increase compared to former President Donald Trump’s performance in 2024.

This change highlights a notable shift as Republicans are facing the risk of losing a Senate seat for the first time since 1988. Talarico, a Democratic lawmaker, competes against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton, with Trump’s endorsement, defeated GOP Senator John Cornyn for the nomination.

Internal Poll Results

The Quorum Report disclosed an internal Republican poll with Talarico receiving 52% support in District 9, leading Paxton by 11 points who has 41%. In the 2024 election, Trump surpassed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 17 points in the same district, indicating a 28-point GOP vote reduction.

This district includes Tarrant County regions, such as parts of Fort Worth. The area already witnessed a political upset earlier this year when Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election by over 14 points.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between September 10 and September 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Quorum Report mentioned using an unusual approach by not revealing sourcing or the polling memo, a choice based on judgment.

General Polling Trends

Recently, Talarico led Paxton in eight different polls. An Emerson College survey from September 12-14 placed Talarico slightly ahead by one percentage point. Additionally, a Siena College/ReconMR poll from September 8-11 showed Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43%.

Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, favor Talarico — Kalshi assigns him a 59% victory chance, while Polymarket gives a 62% probability.

Fundraising Efforts

Both campaigns are increasing fundraising activities. Paxton acquired $5 million from MAGA Inc., a primary pro-Trump political action committee, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Controversial Background

Paxton remains a controversial figure even within his party. The Texas House, led mainly by Republicans, impeached him in 2023 due to power misuse accusations, but the State Senate later acquitted him.

Trump’s endorsement was crucial for Paxton’s success against Cornyn in the Republican primary. Cornyn had served in the Senate since 2002.