According to AccuWeather, the waters surrounding the southeastern United States may remain a focal point for potential tropical weather formations through early and mid-August. Although no immediate tropical activity follows last week’s storm Bertha, a broad zone near the U.S. coast might become more susceptible later in the period.
This area of interest includes waters near Florida, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Forecasters suggest that this zone could have the best chance of producing a tropical depression or tropical rainstorm from the first to the second week of August, even though no activity is expected in the initial days of the month.
Pressure in this region is forecasted to be somewhat lower than in surrounding areas, which may aid thunderstorm development. AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, Alex DaSilva, explained that fronts are expected to move in and gradually weaken. The warm waters can support tropical activity, and wind shear might decrease compared to earlier weeks this summer.
A possible development pathway might involve a cluster of thunderstorms organizing into a low-pressure area, eventually separating from a decaying front. This could allow the system to acquire tropical characteristics, like a warm core and rotation, unlike typical nontropical storms driven by temperature contrasts along a front.
The risk zone’s proximity to land raises concerns. DaSilva highlighted the need for vigilance because of the potential for minimal warning if a tropical storm forms near the coast. A rapidly developing storm near shore could lead to sudden heavy rain, adverse beach conditions, coastal flooding, and damaging winds.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Following Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season after Arthur, AccuWeather expects a below-average to average hurricane season. This outlook is attributed to a strong El Niño, which can suppress Atlantic tropical activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in its May outlook. There is a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA forecasts eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes, with a 70% confidence level in these ranges. An average Atlantic season typically produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
2026 Storm Names
The official 2026 Atlantic storm-name list, published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), includes: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
As of Wednesday, the NHC reports no expected tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic over the next seven days.