Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a slight lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll. Her lead, however, is within the survey’s margin of error, indicating a tight race just under two months before the November 3 Election Day.

The race unfolds as Democrats seek a way to regain control of the Senate, which Republicans currently hold with a 53-47 majority. To achieve this, Democrats need to defend their current seats, including in states where President Donald Trump won in the 2024 election, and flip four others.

Midterm elections traditionally test the political climate for the ruling party. Historically, the president’s party loses seats. The Cook Political Report rates the Minnesota Senate race as likely Democrat. Newsweek has contacted both campaigns for comments.

Competition for the Seat

Flanagan and Tafoya are competing for the seat currently held by Democrat Tina Smith, who is retiring. Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002. In 2008, Democrat Al Franken won over the incumbent Norm Coleman.

Flanagan won against Representative Angie Craig in the Democratic primary, a win for the party’s progressive wing. She has support from independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar. This race mirrors the ongoing divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.

On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, is using her recognition and outsider status to gain voter support. The race has attracted national attention, with Republicans aiming to make advances in Minnesota, despite recent Democratic successes in state elections.

Cook Political Report updated the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat in August. Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz won the state by about 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. In 2016, Minnesota favored Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points. President Barack Obama won the state by nearly 8 points in 2012 and over 10 points in 2008.

Minnesota was central to the Trump administration’s increased immigration enforcement earlier this year. In January, two American citizens were shot by federal immigration officers amid protests in Minneapolis, stirring public anger over the White House’s tough stance on immigration and border security.

Latest Poll Insights

A recent poll by Quantus Insights shows Flanagan leading Tafoya 48.2 percent to 44.4 percent. A large portion, 88.6 percent, of participants are certain about their vote, while 7.5 percent could change their mind.

Women tend to favor Flanagan by 14 points, while men prefer Tafoya by an 8-point margin. Age groups also show clear divisions. Flanagan leads among those under 45, with strong support from voters aged 18 to 44. Tafoya, on the other hand, leads among those aged 45 and older.

Flanagan has a favorable rating of 50 percent, compared to Tafoya’s 42.4 percent. The poll included 720 likely voters, conducted from September 8 to 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Polling Trends

Most polling since the primary shows a lead for Flanagan, although some indicate the margin is within the margin of error. A TIPP/League of American Workers poll in late August showed her ahead by just 2 points. The poll also highlighted demographic divides, with Flanagan garnering more support from younger, minority, and female voters, whereas Tafoya draws support from older, male, and white voters.

KSTP/SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon Polls also point to Flanagan’s lead, with uncertain margins among undecided voters. Prediction markets have Flanagan as a favorite, with a substantial lead over Tafoya in probability percentages.

Democrats’ Senate Prospects

To control the Senate, Democrats must maintain all their seats and flip four Republican-held seats. Challenges include issues like the economy and Trump’s declining approval ratings. However, Republicans remain optimistic about keeping their majority.

National polls show Trump’s approval rating at a low, with significant disapproval. Silver Bulletin’s averages show Democrats leading in several GOP-held seats, with possible gains in key states. Yet, prediction markets are divided on the overall Senate control outcome.

Minnesota opens early voting on October 16.