A recent poll indicates a close battle for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat. Democrat Peggy Flanagan holds a slim lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, with 44% support among likely voters compared to Tafoya’s 42%. This two-point gap highlights a statistical tie as the election approaches.

The poll was conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, surveying 1,201 likely voters. Results also showed 4% backing other candidates, 2% preferring someone else, and 8% uncertain. The margin of error is 3%.

Flanagan recently won the Democratic nomination after defeating Representative Angie Craig. Her campaign has support from notable figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ilhan Omar, representing the progressive wing of the party.

On the Republican side, Tafoya, recognized from her time as an NFL sideline reporter, aims to leverage her outsider status. Despite the Democrats’ strong statewide presence, the race garners national attention as Republicans seek inroads.

Flanagan campaign spokesperson Lexi Byler criticized Tafoya’s alignment with Donald Trump’s policies, emphasizing Flanagan’s focus on working families.

Tafoya responded via social media, critiquing Flanagan’s record as lieutenant governor and calling for accountability and leadership.

The poll also revealed demographic splits: Flanagan leads among Gen-Z, Millennials, women, Black, and Hispanic voters. Tafoya finds more support with voters aged 45 and older, men, and white likely voters. Both candidates garner 37% of the independent vote.

Favorability ratings suggest mixed views on both candidates. Flanagan has a 39% favorable and 34% unfavorable rating, while Tafoya is viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 30%. However, a significant portion of respondents have no opinion on either candidate.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give Flanagan a substantial lead, with over 90% chance of winning compared to Tafoya’s odds.