The New York Knicks made a strong statement in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals, overcoming a 14-point deficit to secure a 105-95 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The Spurs, however, remain favorites to level the series, with FanDuel listing them at -225 moneyline and -6.5 favorites on a 215.5 total as of Friday afternoon.

There’s a compelling argument for taking the Knicks +6 down to +5, especially since I had tipped New York to clinch the title (+170) and by at least 1.5 games (+270) before the finals commenced. Due to this, I’m not inclined to place bets on San Antonio as favorites throughout the series.

Factors Influencing Game 2 Betting Choices

Karl-Anthony Towns, reflecting on his performance in Game 1, attributed his calm demeanor to the influence of his late mother. This was evident in the Knicks’ approach to the thrilling Game 1 victory. Nevertheless, betting the home favorite in Game 2, after losing the opener, has historically been profitable as the home team typically responds.

Despite these trends, my focus for Game 2 is on the total points, betting UNDER 215.5, down to +212. This decision takes into account several factors:

• The Series Opener Result: Game 1 went Under the 217.5 total, with Knicks winning 105-95. Betting the Over in Game 2 might seem logical as one anticipates a return to normalcy in scoring, known as the “zigzag theory” in NBA playoff betting.
• Game 1 Dynamics: Even with a quick pace, the game stayed Under. This was less about poor shooting and more about robust, championship-level defenses. Only one quarter in Game 1 saw more than 50 points scored.
• Defensive Matchups: San Antonio’s defense made Jalen Brunson’s shots tough. New York’s Towns and Mitchell Robinson effectively contained Victor Wembanyama. The Knicks’ defensive wing trio—Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart—often named “Wingstop,” effectively shut down Spurs’ Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox.

As the series continues, expect these contests to transform into defensive battles rather than high-scoring affairs. The Knicks will likely prefer a slower, methodical pace, capitalizing on their superior half-court offense. This approach limits easy scoring opportunities as both teams maintain low turnover and strong defensive rebounding rates.

Looking Ahead to Tip-off

I plan to hold off placing a bet on the Under until closer to the start of the game. The total might increase due to public betting patterns favoring Overs, especially with the Knicks involved in these high-stakes finals.

Prediction: Knicks 107, Spurs 104

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Player Prop Consideration

Player Prop: Spurs wing Stephon Castle UNDER 16.5 Points

Analysis for Spurs player Stephon Castle’s scoring potential against the Knicks in Game 2 is available in the OutKick Newsletter.

For more sports betting insights and perspectives, follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark and listen to my OutKick Bets Podcast. I provide sports betting expertise at OutKick.