On the eve of Texas’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff, Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn, according to a new poll from Quantus Insights released on Monday.
The race moved to a runoff after neither candidate gained a majority in March. This contest draws national attention as it may indicate the GOP’s future direction in a key Sun Belt state and determine who will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement adds to the race’s dynamics, as he supported Paxton last week. Newsweek attempted to contact Paxton’s campaign for comments, while Cornyn’s campaign declined to comment on the survey results.
What To Know
The poll reveals Paxton’s 52.7 percent lead over Cornyn at 43.4 percent, with 3.9 percent undecided. Notably, 58.9 percent of respondents said Trump’s endorsement did not affect their decision.
Paxton holds advantages among men, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and white voters who are likely to participate in the GOP runoff. Cornyn leads among Hispanic and Asian voters and is tied with Paxton among Black likely voters. Rural voters lean towards Paxton, while Cornyn holds an edge with urban voters.
On Monday, Cornyn’s campaign posted on X, urging voters, “Tomorrow, Texas voters will make an important decision about the future of our state. I’m asking for your vote to keep delivering conservative results for Texas families.” Paxton also took to X, stating, “Vote with President Trump Tomorrow. The FINAL day to vote in the Republican runoff. If you’ve already voted, text your friends, call your family, and help get 5 more people to the polls. Every single vote matters. Let’s finish strong and WIN THIS! FIND YOUR POLLING LOCATION AT http://VOTETEXAS.GOV”
Trump reiterated his support by posting on Truth Social, highlighting Paxton’s loyalty and criticizing Cornyn for his lack of support for certain policies.
Governor Greg Abbott and other top Republican leaders in Texas have opted not to endorse either candidate. The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters from May 21 to May 23, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
What Other Polls Show
A Texas Southern University/YouGov poll indicates a tight race between Talarico and both Republican candidates. Cornyn holds a narrow lead over Talarico with 45 percent to 44 percent, while Libertarian Ted Brown captures 3 percent. Paxton and Talarico each gather 45 percent in another scenario.
Another survey by Texas Public Opinion Research finds Talarico leading both GOP contenders in hypothetical matchups. He leads Cornyn 44 to 41 percent and Paxton 46 to 41 percent. The survey’s margin of error is 3.3 percent, covering 1,018 likely voters from April 17 to April 20.
A poll from co/efficient shows Paxton slightly behind Cornyn, with Cornyn at 44 percent and Paxton at 43 percent. This poll reflects 13 percent undecided and illustrates a close divide among different voter groups.