A recent Marist poll indicates Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa’s Senate seat. This closely contested election shares some similarities with the conditions seen during the last Democratic statewide Senate victory 18 years ago. Released on Tuesday, the poll shows Turek with the support of 50% of registered Iowa voters, compared to 42% for Hinson. The poll surveyed 1,050 registered voters in Iowa, using phone, text, or online methods from September 17 to 20.
The two candidates aim to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. This election could play a crucial role in determining control of the U.S. Senate. Hinson, who recently distanced herself from President Donald Trump by calling for the end of the Iran war, had previously received his endorsement last September.
The last Democratic win in an Iowa Senate race was by Senator Tom Harkin, who defeated Christopher Reed 18 years ago. Since then, Republicans Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley have maintained control over Iowa’s Senate seats. The current midterm elections may shift control of both the House and Senate, as Republicans work to address widespread concerns over economic issues including inflation, high fuel costs, and the ongoing Iran war.
Iowa has elected Republican Senate candidates since 2008, yet the state has also supported presidential candidates from both major parties. Notably, Trump secured Iowa in the last three election cycles, whereas Barack Obama won twice prior. Polymarket rated the Iowa Senate race as a toss-up, giving Turek a 48% winning chance.
In comparing this year’s election with Harkin’s 2008 win, economic concerns are a key similarity, affecting both Iowa and nationwide sentiment. While the 2008 election’s anxiety stemmed largely from a financial crisis, today’s concerns focus on tariff impacts, the Iran war, and fuel costs. Farmers, significant to Iowa’s economy, are facing challenges as these factors continue to affect them.
“Ashley Hinson is losing this race because Iowans are sick and tired of corrupt D.C. politicians who hurt Iowa to benefit themselves and their donors,” stated Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Drew Myers. “Hinson voted seven times to continue the Iran war, causing gas and diesel prices to soar while her Big Oil donors see record profits. Hinson’s net worth has increased significantly since joining Congress, while she has raised costs on necessities like gas, groceries, and healthcare.”
Ashley Hinson has acknowledged the political risks. Recently, she called for an end to the Iran war in a post, stating that high prices are straining Iowa citizens. To alleviate this, she suggested suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, implementing more E-15 usage, reinstating the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit, and instituting a diesel relief program. Additionally, she emphasized the need to fund the highway trust to avoid infrastructure issues.
Josh Turek responded to Hinson’s stance, criticizing her for past voting decisions supporting the Iran war. He accused her of following his lead in addressing rising costs related to the war, citing her repeated votes in favor of its continuation.
The Iran war echoes the political climate of 2008, when the Iraq war was pivotal. In that year, John McCain defended the decision to invade Iraq, while Obama opposed it. Despite some similarities to Harkin’s victory year, there are differences; the Iran war involves less direct U.S. military action, and Harkin was an established incumbent.
As the midterm election on November 3 approaches, more polls are expected to provide clarity on the race. Both campaigns will likely increase their efforts to engage voters. Whether Turek can maintain his lead remains uncertain, making Iowa’s Senate race a key focus this election cycle.