Democrat James Talarico has a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ prominent U.S. Senate race according to a recent poll before the November election. This survey, conducted by SoCal Strategies, places Talarico ahead with 50% of the vote, while Paxton trails at 45%. The results signify a change from the pollster’s earlier June survey, which had Paxton leading at 49% to Talarico’s 47%.

Texas has traditionally been a Republican bastion for federal elections. However, changing demographics and political dynamics have made recent election cycles increasingly competitive. Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Talarico and Paxton via email for comments outside regular working hours.

Talarico’s Demographic Support

The survey conducted between September 12 and 13 among 649 likely voters reveals that state Representative Talarico holds strong support across various voter groups. His backing among Hispanic voters increased dramatically from 10% in June to 38%. Furthermore, his support from independent voters grew remarkably from 10% to 45%. Among self-identified Republicans, his backing rose to 12% and he enjoys 46% support among voters aged 18 to 29.

Attorney General Paxton retains solid advantages among white voters at 56% to Talarico’s 39%, voters aged 45 to 64 with 49% compared to 46%, and voters over 65 with 51% to Talarico’s 44%.

Trends Towards Election Day

The poll also indicates possible tightening as Election Day looms, with Republican voters apparently more undecided than Democrats.

A survey report noted, “Republicans are less decided than Democrats. While 6% of respondents who supported Trump in 2024 are currently unsure in the Senate race, only 1% of those who stood by [Vice President Kamala] Harris are uncertain.”

For Paxton to secure victory, he needs to garner virtually all these undecided voters and win back a significant portion of the 12% of Republicans who would vote for Talarico if the election was today.

Former President Donald Trump endorses Paxton, calling him “the greatest attorney general in America.” Trump has frequently criticized Talarico, referring to him derogatorily on social media and in speeches.

Poll Outcomes in the Texas Senate Race

Since 1980, Texas has voted for Republican presidential nominees consistently. Democrats anticipate that 2026 might provide a prime opportunity to challenge for statewide positions. Trump secured a 13.7-point win over Kamala Harris in Texas in 2024.

No Democrat has been elected to statewide office in Texas since 1994, reinforcing its status as a long-standing Republican stronghold. Despite demographic changes and population growth reshaping the state’s electorate, Democrats have yet to succeed in several high-profile campaigns, including Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 attempt to unseat Ted Cruz.

Polls have alternately favored Paxton and Talarico throughout the race. This tight contest follows Paxton’s primary win over veteran Senator John Cornyn in late May.

A YouGov/Univision poll from August 27 to September 4, surveying 1,000 registered voters, shows Talarico with a 5-point lead at 48% to Paxton’s 43%, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll from August 24-26 surveyed 1,167 likely voters and found Paxton and Talarico in a statistical tie. Talarico leads slightly with 44% to Paxton’s 43.4%. Approximately 12.6% of respondents are undecided. Including leaners, the race is essentially tied at 50% support for both candidates.

Another Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll interviewed 1,000 likely Texas voters from August 9 to 11. It showed Paxton at 47%, Talarico at 46%, 5% undecided, and 2% supporting other candidates, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

A Fox News poll conducted from July 23-27 with 1,006 registered Texas voters found Talarico leading at 51% to Paxton’s 48%, with 1% undecided. The margin of error here stands at +/- 4 percentage points.

Prediction markets reflect the razor-thin margins of the race. As of Monday, Kalshi’s data had Talarico at 52% and Paxton at 48%, while Polymarket gave Talarico a slight advantage at 51% compared to Paxton’s 50%.

Political forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the race a toss-up.