The effects of one of the most intense El Niños recorded are expected to worsen global food insecurity and increase agricultural commodity prices worldwide. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices in August rose to their highest level since 2022. This increase results from the impacts of the record El Niño climate event that began earlier this year affecting many major crop-producing countries.

According to Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, heat-related deaths could exceed 450,000 due to the wide-reaching effects of the El Niño pattern. These events threaten supplies and those dependent on them in many regions globally. Matin Qaim, a professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Bonn in Germany, expressed concerns about those living in poverty, who already allocate a significant portion of their income to food and will now face even higher prices.

Potential Price Increases

Regions anticipated to be heavily impacted by El Niño, mostly in the Global South, may experience shortages of certain food groups in the coming months. Chocolate, olive oil, and coffee are among the commodities expected to be in reduced supply and become more expensive for consumers in the U.S.

Kamiar Mohaddes, a professor at Cambridge University, explained that chocolate and sugar could experience price increases first due to limited global reserves. Bread prices will follow due to wheat shortages, while coffee and palm oil products may see delayed impacts, extending effects until 2027. Wheat production is nearing a 56-year low, and drought risks in India, Thailand, and Vietnam threaten rice imports.

Amanda Maycock, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, noted a 10 to 15 percent reduction in rainfall during the Indian monsoon, impacting rice production. Other tropical crops like coffee and cocoa are expected to suffer from heavy rains and droughts.

Duration of the Impact

The U.S. might avoid the worst El Niño impacts, particularly food shortages. Nelson Villoria, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, suggested that declining crop yields like corn could be offset by production elsewhere in the U.S., reducing the likelihood of major food shortages despite slowing imports.

Qaim highlighted that many poorer countries in Africa and Asia rely on grain imports for food security, which may lead to increased hunger in these regions. He warned that the climate event could worsen existing supply issues caused by disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping routes, predicting that prices might rise for six to 12 months. Mohaddes projected a global food price increase in the “mid-teens percentage,” with effects lasting up to two years, as the event builds toward a peak by December 2026.

Goldman Sachs analysis, as reported by The Guardian, estimated nearly a 16 percent jump in global food commodity prices due to the event, with full effects only expected by the second half of 2028.