Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has achieved a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt’s election. Exit polls indicate the party secured 44.5 percent of the vote, outperforming all its rivals. This marks a significant milestone as the strongest showing by a far-right party in a German state since World War II. Despite the success, whether AfD will form a government remains uncertain, as other political parties have traditionally avoided coalitions with it.
This outcome represents a major setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc while marking a substantial breakthrough for AfD. The party has gained considerable backing in eastern Germany, focusing its campaign on stringent immigration controls, opposition to mainstream politics, and adopting a nationalist agenda. In Saxony-Anhalt, AfD’s leader Ulrich Siegmund had consistently polled above 40 percent prior to the election, outstripping the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), the governing party in the state.
The election saw a notable increase in voter engagement, with turnout reaching record highs. By 4 p.m., 65.3 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballots, reported by the State Election Commissioner Christa Dieckmann as per Bild. This turnout substantially surpassed previous elections, which recorded 41 percent in 2021 and 47.1 percent in 2016.
Immigration emerged as a key issue, reflecting a broader debate across Germany in anticipation of the upcoming federal vote. AfD campaigned keenly on promises to tighten border controls, curb asylum applications, and heighten deportations. The party argues that current migration levels have stressed housing, schools, and public services. Immigration ranks high among voters’ concerns alongside the economy and living costs, boosting political participation in the state election.
Implications of an AfD-led State
Should AfD govern, it will control state-level policies regarding education, policing, and segments of immigration policy. The AfD’s support is predominantly in the former communist East, harnessing skepticism towards immigration and Germany’s military support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Saxony-Anhalt’s AfD faction was labeled a “far-right extremist organization” in 2023 by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The party’s manifesto suggests significant policy shifts, including stricter migration and asylum controls, educational and security policy changes, and enhanced traditional family support. It also proposes expanding nuclear energy, limiting wind power, reforming public broadcasting, and easing taxes and regulations for businesses.
Ulrich Siegmund has indicated that if given majority control, AfD would pursue implementing its program, providing the party a platform to demonstrate its policies in governance rather than opposition.
Significance of AfD Victory
This victory comes as AfD aims to broaden its influence nationwide, aspiring to be a contender in national governance. The result poses increased pressure on Merz and the CDU, particularly on migration and economic fronts. The outcome will be scrutinized as Germany approaches the next federal election in 2029, where AfD intends to further its achievements and vie for a substantial role in national politics.
Future Prospects
The CDU firmly opposes collaboration with AfD, prompting other parties to explore forming an alternative government if AfD lacks sufficient seats for independent governance. The final outcome not only signifies AfD’s historic triumph but also questions its feasibility in transitioning this electoral success into actual state government control.
PD Dr. Benjamin Höhne, interim professor for Comparative European Governance Systems at the Chemnitz University of Technology, communicated to Newsweek via email that immediate governance by AfD is improbable due to the prevailing political barrier. Höhne noted, “This is the most likely scenario. No immediate reactions are expected, as state elections are scheduled to take place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin in two weeks.” Political parties will likely await the results of these elections before making any decisions.