The Republican runoff for Georgia’s gubernatorial race is becoming closely contested. A recent polling memo from Cygnal reveals businessman Rick Jackson is now leading Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, even though Jones initially had the advantage with President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
The primary results showed Jones leading with approximately 39% of the vote against Jackson’s 33%, resulting in a runoff between the two contenders. Over time, Jackson erased Jones’s lead. The latest Cygnal memo indicates Jackson’s support has increased, marking a significant shift in the race.
Jones has everything moving against him; the race has gone from +0 to a +12 Jackson lead when accounting for first-ballot undecideds being forced to choose a candidate on a subsequent lean ballot; first-choice has gone from +3 Jones to +11 Jackson (a 14-point swing).
Initially, on May 28, Jones led Jackson 41% to 38% on the first-choice ballot. By June 7, Jackson had increased his support to 46%, while Jones fell to 35%. On the combined ballot, Jackson’s lead expands further with 56% to Jones’s 44%.
Although the Cygnal memo shows Jackson ahead, other recent polls present a different outlook. A CivicLens Research survey revealed Jones holding a 10-point lead, with 50% compared to Jackson’s 40%. This survey included 700 likely Georgia GOP voters, conducted from May 29 to June 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A separate JMC Enterprises poll of 600 likely voters conducted on May 26 and 27 found Jackson leading by 2 percentage points. Here, Jackson had 45%, while Jones received 43%, with 12% undecided. This poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Despite varying poll numbers, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Jones for the GOP nomination. As of Tuesday evening, Kalshi had Jones’s odds around 58%, and Polymarket at 61%.
Georgia Gubernatorial Race
Georgia is known for its competitive political landscape. Although the state supported Trump in 2024, Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans govern at the state level. The Republican candidate who wins the runoff will compete against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.
Trump’s endorsements are a formidable force in Republican primaries. He has influenced numerous races this cycle, reinforcing his role within the party. Recent victories by Trump-backed candidates, such as over Representative Thomas Massie, highlight the challenges faced by Republicans who oppose Trump.
Governor Brian Kemp, who will leave office due to term limits, previously broke with Trump post-2020 election by not supporting efforts to overturn the state’s voting results. Although Kemp and Trump have since reconciled, these events show Georgia Republicans occasionally diverging from Trump on crucial matters.