Fox News adjusted its ratings of 15 House races on Tuesday, impacting Republicans. This shift occurs as Democrats aim to expand the battleground to secure more conservative seats in the midterm elections. President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to decline, approaching Election Day. Control of the House requires Democrats to flip a minority of seats, given Republicans hold 218 seats to Democrats’ 214.

The updated Fox News Power Rankings introduced five new races into the toss-up category, moved six races to Lean Republican, adjusted three to Lean Democrat, and reclassified one as Likely Democrat. With only six weeks remaining until the midterms, this change signifies concern for Republicans.

The toss-up category now includes Florida’s 14th and 22nd Districts, where redistricting favored conservatives, along with Iowa’s 2nd District, Maine’s 2nd District, and Michigan’s 4th District. Overall, Democrats are favored in 215 races, Republicans in 201, and 19 seats remain undecided without a clear advantage for either party.

Comparison to Other Forecasts

Other forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball offer similar predictions, differing in fewer toss-up races. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball marked four races as toss-ups by Tuesday.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday moved three races toward Democrats. Florida’s 27th District switched from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Iowa’s 1st District altered from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Texas’ 9th District adjusted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Managing Editor Kyle Kondik compared the environment to 2018, noting negative conditions despite no significant economic challenges. He highlighted the president’s diminished credibility on the economy and unpopular military actions leading to calls from GOP Senate candidates to end conflict.

Democrats’ Polling Chances

Recent polls showcase Democrats gaining ground as Election Day nears. Democrats have led the generic ballot throughout the year. However, newer surveys indicate Democrats hold a substantial advantage.

A YouGov and The Economist poll reflected Republicans trailing Democrats by 14 points, 52% to 38%. It surveyed 1,401 registered voters from September 18 to 21, 2026.

An Ipsos and Reuters survey showed Democrats leading by 8 points, from 43% to 35% among 979 registered voters. Conducted September 17 to 20, 2026, it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Quantus Insights indicated Democrats with an 8-point lead, showing a distribution of 50% to 42%. It interviewed 1,389 likely voters from September 15 to 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Nate Silver commented that Republicans’ polling situation is worsening unusually during midterms. He hypothesized gas prices and AI anxieties contribute negatively for the GOP.

Liam Buckley, DCCC spokesperson, stated the House GOP faces consequences of broken promises and escalating costs. Voters desire change, opting for Democrats for House majority.

Newsweek contacted NRCC for comment via email.

Prediction Markets and Elections

Predictions suggest Democrats will regain control of the House. By Tuesday, Democrats held a 91% chance on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket, showing increased confidence.

Democrats’ favorability on Kalshi rose from 85% a month prior. On January 1, their standing was 77%. These markets allow trading contracts linked to political outcomes, providing probability estimates through real-time wagers.

Recent House elections have been close, reflecting historical patterns. In 2018, Democrats gained significant seats amid Trump’s first term. Democrats anticipate a similar impact this year, contingent on Trump’s approval and toss-up results.

Previous House Elections

• 2016: Republicans held majority with popular vote advantage of approx. 1 point.
• 2018: Democrats had a popular vote lead of approx. 8.6 points, gaining House control.
• 2020: Democrats held popular vote lead of approx. 3.1 points with slim majority.
• 2022: Republicans maintained majority, popular vote favored by approx. 2.7 points.
• 2024: Republicans sustained majority, showing popular vote lead of approx. 2.6 points.

Upcoming Developments

Polls will continue to be monitored leading up to November 3. Election outcomes depend on developments, particularly economic factors and cost of living issues, impacting the public. Trump’s approval remains a critical factor in the year’s electoral decision.