Democracy Dies in Darkness

States with fewer childcare rules generally see a smaller gap between the number of children people desire to have and the number they ultimately have. This finding suggests a potential link between childcare policies and fertility outcomes.

On July 28, 2026, a study published at 12:05 p.m. EDT, examined this relationship. By 2026, it was evident through research and observation by Anna Claire Flowers, Vincent Geloso, Clara Piano, and Lyman Stone that there are disparities across states regarding fertility rates and desires.

The Manhattan Institute’s City Journal, focusing on urban policy, has highlighted issues such as these. Current data show American women are having fewer children than they prefer. According to estimates, the average fertility gap, defined as the difference between a woman’s ideal and actual number of children, stands at 0.76 for U.S. women. This figure approximates nearly one child.

The gap, however, is not uniform across the country. For example, in North Dakota, the gap is relatively small at approximately one-third of a child. Conversely, in states like New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Alaska, the gap exceeds one child. These discrepancies highlight how childcare regulations may influence family planning and fertility decisions.