Recent polling from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs shows Democratic candidates leading in three Texas congressional districts carried by President Donald Trump in the 2024 elections. The results indicate a significant shift in voter preferences.
15th Congressional District
The poll finds Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, the Democratic nominee for Texas’ 15th Congressional District, leading Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz with 50% support compared to De La Cruz’s 45%. Notably, Trump won this district by 18 points in 2024.
In the Senate race, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 42% in the same district. Republican Senator Ted Cruz previously carried this district by 9 points.
Texas’ 15th District, stretching from Hidalgo County to Guadalupe County, is approximately 81% Hispanic according to Census Bureau data. The survey, which suggests both Pulido and Talarico have significant leads, marks a turnaround that Republican strategist Mike Madrid notes is the third poll in a week showing Pulido with a lead of 5 to 7 points.
Madrid mentioned that prior shifts to the right were seen as part of a permanent realignment, but recent frustrations with the economy have fueled a reversal. “The Latino vote remains a significant swing element,” he said.
28th and 34th Congressional Districts
In Texas’ 28th District, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 41%, despite the district voting for Trump by 7 points in 2024. The district, held by Democrat Henry Cuellar, saw a narrow victory for Cruz that year.
The 34th District, also with a significant Hispanic population—about 90%—shows Talarico leading 53% to 42%. Cruz had carried it by 2 points in 2024. These shifts highlight a trend where Democrats lead down-ballot despite continued Republican support at the top of the ticket.
Madrid noted conversations with Hispanic voters reveal a focus on economic issues, areas where neither party has fully addressed concerns. This economic focus remains a priority for voters, with many still aligning culturally conservative.
Polling Highlights
Nationwide and local surveys accentuate economic concerns as paramount for Latino voters. A UnidosUS national poll highlighted that 60% prioritize costs of living, and similar concerns appeared in Texas-specific polling. Health care and housing costs are also key issues.
Separate data from Public Opinion Strategies identified housing and health care costs as major concerns for 1,200 Hispanic registered voters. Deportation policies produce significant unease, particularly when enforcement affects family members.
Implications for the November Elections
The Texas Southern University poll echoes broader electoral shifts in Texas. Other polls, like the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have adjusted ratings toward Democrats. Despite these findings, analysts such as Nate Silver caution against overinterpreting singular surveys, recalling past electoral surprises in Texas polling accuracy.
Silver’s projections place Talarico’s chances of winning between 59% to 61%. Despite an overall positive environment for Democrats, historical context matters, as Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Silver emphasizes factors like fundraising and ongoing political controversies as influencing electoral dynamics.
Overall, these developments signal a significant political shift in traditionally Republican districts, influenced largely by economic priorities and Latino voter concerns.