Democratic state Representative James Talarico is ahead of Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, based on a recent poll from Texas Public Opinion Research.
Paxton recently secured a win in the Senate GOP runoff by defeating Senator John Cornyn. This victory came after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, although Trump had initially withheld his support following the March primary.
The runoff election was necessary after neither Cornyn nor Paxton obtained a majority in March. This led to a closely monitored contest that could influence the GOP’s future path in Texas and determine who will compete against Talarico in November.
The recent poll indicates that Paxton has 44 percent of the projected vote, while Talarico leads with 47 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown holds 1 percent. The survey also found that 7 percent remain undecided, and 2 percent do not intend to vote. Newsweek reached out to both Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns for comments.
What To Know: Among undecided voters, Paxton received 19 percent preference, Talarico garnered 17 percent, and Brown attracted 13 percent. Meanwhile, 50 percent were uncertain.
The survey was conducted with 1,670 likely voters on May 27 and May 28, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Talarico shows a favorability rating of 47 percent against an unfavorable rating of 40 percent. Paxton’s ratings are 38 percent favorable and 57 percent unfavorable.
When asked about understanding economic challenges for Texans, 40 percent favored Paxton compared to 45 percent for Talarico. An additional 8 percent viewed neither candidate favorably, and 7 percent were unsure.
The poll also revealed that 75 percent believe Paxton is too conservative, while 60 percent see Talarico as too liberal.
Prominent Republicans like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller have criticized Talarico after the runoff results. Their critiques included Talarico’s stance on issues like the American flag, veganism, and his past comments on gender and religion.
In response, Talarico has addressed past controversies involving Ken Paxton, labeling him as “the most corrupt politician in America.”
Race Reclassification and Political Commentary
The Cook Political Report recently downgraded the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” following Paxton’s victory. Cook’s classification system ranges from “solid Republican” to “solid Democrat.” The new rating moves the Texas Senate race closer to being a “toss-up.”
Jessica Taylor, a U.S. Senate and governors editor, noted that national Republicans now face a challenge with a candidate they view as weaker than incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Taylor expressed that Paxton’s controversial image and weak fundraising influenced the shift in race classification.
After Paxton’s runoff win, Trump congratulated him, praised Cornyn’s career, and criticized Talarico on Truth Social.
Trump’s public remarks included personal jabs at Talarico, labeling his opponent unfavorably on social and political issues. He pledged to support Paxton with large rallies in Texas.