Darline Graham has won the Republican nomination for the South Carolina Senate race. She will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November. This election follows the passing of Senator Lindsey Graham, who was serving since 2003 and passed away on July 11. Darline Graham was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster, with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, to fill the seat until the end of the current term.

Republican Primary Results

In the Republican primary, Darline Graham defeated Representative Ralph Norman, gaining about 52% of the vote. The Associated Press declared her the winner at 9:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Democratic Candidate Annie Andrews

Annie Andrews had secured the Democratic nomination in June. South Carolina presents a challenge for Democrats, given Trump’s 18-point lead in the state in 2024. Despite this, Andrews sees potential for a competitive race due to the president’s declining approval ratings.

“We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest,” Andrews said.

Andrews highlighted that Republicans are veering “to the right” to demonstrate loyalty to Trump while overlooking economic issues.

Polls and Prediction Markets

Polling for the race remains limited after Lindsey Graham’s death. Annie Andrews’ internal poll suggests a close contest, though independent polling verifying this is lacking.

Prediction markets show a strong Republican lead. Ahead of the election, Republicans had around an 88% chance of success according to Kalshi and Polymarket.

Forecasting experts like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as secure for Republicans.

South Carolina’s Political Landscape

South Carolina remains a Republican stronghold. It has favored Republican presidential candidates heavily in recent decades. The state last voted Democratic at the presidential level in 1976 with Jimmy Carter. Ernest Hollings was the last Democratic senator elected in 1998.

Democrats have struggled to make inroads, despite having a notable number of Black voters and urban areas that lean Democratic. Republicans benefit from rural and suburban support and racial polarization.

The GOP advantages were evident in the 2020 elections when Jaime Harrison lost to Lindsey Graham by about 10 points.

In 2026, Democrats hope to leverage Trump’s declining approval ratings to boost their chances, although many analysts still predict a Republican hold due to historical voting patterns.

Trump’s approval ratings have been plummeting, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll indicating 65% disapproval.

In South Carolina, Civiqs polling shows Trump with a 51% disapproval rating.