Cori Bush Aims for Political Comeback
Former Congress member Cori Bush seeks to reclaim her seat in Missouri’s 1st District by challenging Representative Wesley Bell. Missouri voters are set to participate in the statewide primaries on August 4, preceding the November midterm elections. This race will serve as a crucial test for the progressive movement, which has seen success in cities like New York City, Philadelphia, and Denver.
An Intense Primary Battle
Bush, who held the district from 2021 to 2025, is known for her strong progressive stance. Wesley Bell, currently serving as the local prosecutor, won against Bush two years ago. The previous race was influenced by significant outside spending, with extensive investments from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project. Bell criticized Bush’s decision to vote against a bipartisan infrastructure bill during that campaign.
Progressives backing Bush hope for increased support this time, expecting a shift since 2024. The Democratic base shows growing dissatisfaction with the party establishment’s handling of former President Donald Trump. This discontent has led to progressive challengers frequently being chosen over long-standing incumbents in recent primaries.
Polling and Prediction Markets
Polling data for the district centered around St. Louis remains scarce. A Bush internal survey is the only public poll, showing Bell with a slight lead. He holds 44 percent support, compared to Bush’s 40 percent, with 17 percent undecided. The poll reveals that voters slightly favor Bush, with a 52 percent positive view compared to Bell’s 45 percent.
The prediction markets favor Bell. Kalshi estimates his chances at 59 percent, while Bush stands at 40 percent. This contrasts with a month ago, where predictions had Bush at a higher chance than Bell. On Polymarket, Bell’s probability to win rests at 64 percent.
Prediction markets work by traders buying and selling contracts tied to political outcomes. These reflect trader sentiment and react to factors like polling and candidate developments.
Support for Cori Bush
Cori Bush has garnered endorsements from key progressive figures and groups. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib support her run. The Justice Democrats also back her campaign.
Wesley Bell, in contrast, has the backing of House leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. AIPAC continues its support for Bell, labeling him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”
Changes Since 2024
In 2024, Wesley Bell emerged victorious against Bush in one of the costliest House primaries. AIPAC spent over $8 million to defeat Bush, opposed to U.S. military aid to Israel post the 2023 Gaza conflict.
Current dynamics have shifted regarding views on Israel among Democrats. In 2024, 58 percent viewed the Israeli people favorably; now it’s 43 percent. Favorability towards the Israeli government dropped from 24 percent to 16 percent.
Bush’s campaign focuses on her Congressional achievements and criticizes Bell’s AIPAC support. Her recent ad emphasized securing funding, housing efforts, and fighting for democracy. Bell counters by questioning her seriousness as a candidate, citing local dedication and criticizing her focus on self-interest.
Progressive Momentum
Recent primary victories highlight a growing progressive influence. Notably in New York, Claire Valdez won a seat previously held by Representative Nydia Velázquez. In Colorado, Melat Kiros, a democratic socialist, won against Diana DeGette. Justice Democrats have supported numerous successful candidates across various states.