Election Update
Democratic candidate James Talarico’s prospects against Republican Ken Paxton have altered since Paxton secured the GOP nomination in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. State Attorney General Paxton, supported by former President Donald Trump, defeated the incumbent John Cornyn with 62% of the vote, as announced by the Associated Press.
Following this result, prediction markets are leaning towards Paxton, yet the race remains dynamic with more than five months until Election Day. This contest is anticipated to test the Democrats’ ability to win statewide office, which they haven’t done since the mid-1990s. Shifts in suburban areas around Austin, Dallas, and Houston suggest a potentially competitive race.
Betting Odds
According to prediction market Polymarket, Talarico’s chances of winning the Texas Senate election dropped by five percentage points, from 45% to 40%. Current figures show Republicans favored at 61%, compared to Democrats at 40%. Similarly, Kalshi shows Talarico’s likelihood of victory decreased to 43%, with previous numbers at 44%.
BetOnline reported a shift back towards the GOP after Paxton’s runoff win. The odds stand at Paxton -125 and Talarico -105, indicating a competitive race with Paxton as a slight favorite.
Poll Results
Polling indicates a competitive race without a clear leader across various surveys. Early polls showed a tie between Paxton and Talarico at 45.6%. After securing the Democratic nomination, Talarico led in several polls, with April results showing him ahead by five percentage points in some cases.
However, a poll by Texas Southern University predicted a tight race, with each candidate receiving 45% of the vote. This suggests that the race evolved from an early tie to a period of Democratic strength, before narrowing again as Republicans united behind Paxton.
Compared to Beto O’Rourke’s position during the 2018 race, Talarico is polling stronger at this stage, indicating a more competitive stance for Democrats in 2026. Despite this, the Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Republican, highlighting the state’s GOP inclination.
Candidate Statements
Today, change was on the ballot and change won,” said Paxton to supporters, emphasizing grassroots support and conservative goals such as border security. Paxton, described by Trump as a “MAGA Warrior,” stresses ending establishment politics.
Talarico’s campaign faces Republican scrutiny over past comments and his support for LGBTQ+ rights. Talarico portrays the race as a choice between “corruption and extremism” and a more policy-focused governance.
Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America,” Talarico mentioned, accusing Paxton of prioritizing self-interest over Texas laws. Paxton’s past impeachment and subsequent Senate acquittal are focal points in the campaign.
Texans will cast their votes on November 3, 2026.