Representative Nancy Mace faces challenges in the Republican primary for the South Carolina governor’s race. Recent polls show her trailing behind other Republican candidates. Her relationship with President Donald Trump and varied ideological stances contribute to her position in the race.

The primary will be a major test for the Republican Party in South Carolina, as Mace competes against Trump-endorsed candidate Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, among others. Republicans will see if they’re ready to support a candidate who has, at times, diverged from Trump’s line.

South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls

The upcoming June 9 primary shows a tight competition. A runoff on June 23 will occur if no candidate gains over 50% support.

• Co/Efficient (June 2-4, 879 likely voters, MOE of +/- 3.31%)
• The Tyson Group (June 1-3, 500 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.4%)
• The Citadel (May 21-31, 600 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.5%)

Many candidates, like Evette and Wilson, have high name recognition due to their state-wide positions, says Robert Oldendick from the University of South Carolina. Similar policies among Republicans focus on state income tax elimination and government efficiency.

Prediction Markets on the Election

Prediction markets favor Evette, with her support increasing after the Trump endorsement on May 29. On platforms like Kalshi, Evette holds a 77% chance of winning, compared to 17% for Wilson and 4.3% for Mace. Polymarket gives Evette a 73% chance, Wilson 13%, and Mace 4%.

“She never wavered, never let me down,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, expressing his support for Evette.

These prediction markets offer insights into trader sentiments but may not always predict outcomes accurately.

Mace’s Complex Relationship with Trump

Nancy Mace’s history with Trump has wavering highs and lows. Initially, she was a staunch supporter, holding key roles in Trump’s 2016 campaign. However, her criticism after the Capitol riot in 2021 marked a turn.

This strained their bond, especially with Trump supporting her opponent, Katie Arrington, in Mace’s 2022 primary. Mace still won the nomination and later chose to publicly support Trump again, noting differences but stressing unity against current leadership.

Future Battles for South Carolina’s Governor Seat

Despite national trends, South Carolina remains reliably Republican. Both Kalshi and Polymarket assign over 90% probability to Republicans maintaining the governorship. Political analyst Oldendick suggests the GOP will keep their edge due to their financial support and known candidates.

South Carolina last favored a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. The state elected its last Democratic governor, Jim Hodges, in 1998. These historical trends frame a strongly Republican stance in the upcoming elections.