For many years, Washington viewed the Gulf monarchies as key elements of American influence in the Middle East. The U.S. military established a significant presence, creating an extensive network of bases and infrastructure across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. These nations hosted American troops, purchased U.S. weapons, and aligned with Washington’s regional aims, expecting protection under U.S. security in return. However, this agreement is beginning to change.
Currently, the most significant geopolitical change in the Middle East is occurring in the Gulf states where leaders are questioning the reliability of the U.S. as a security ally. President Trump’s actions regarding Iran have hastened this reevaluation. Earlier this year, when the U.S., alongside Israel, initiated conflict against Iran, several Gulf Arab states supported these operations. American aircraft operated from their bases, with Trump praising Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as key partners.
Despite receiving praise, these Gulf countries faced severe consequences. Their energy and water facilities became targets for Iranian retaliation. While the U.S. protected Israel using advanced military resources, Gulf states bore the brunt of retaliatory actions. This experience has considerably changed their strategic thinking.
A recent turning point occurred with the announcement of “Project Freedom,” a U.S. naval initiative to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz after disruptions by Iran. Washington wanted to show strength, while Tehran saw escalation. The Gulf monarchies saw it as a potential disaster. Saudi Arabia denied use of its airspace and bases. Kuwait and Qatar imposed restrictions. As a result, the mission became unsustainable, leading Trump to suspend it after only two U.S.-flagged vessels passed.
Gulf states effectively stopped a major U.S. military plan, an act almost unimaginable previously. Cooperation resumed only after the mission was paused, highlighting that their support is no longer guaranteed. Previously, the U.S. relied on Gulf bases in crises, offering military protection in exchange. Now, Gulf states question the protection’s beneficiary, feeling vulnerable as they occupy the frontline near Iran.
They perceive the relationship with the U.S. as unbalanced. The U.S. can initiate actions and later withdraw, while Gulf states remain permanent neighbors with Iran. They have realized they serve as launch points for American power rather than partners in protection. This recognition is instigating a strategic shift.
Gulf countries are now selective about their support for U.S. operations, practicing what resembles “transactional neutrality.” They are applying Trump’s “America First” philosophy back onto U.S. relations, preferring “the Gulf First.” They are diversifying defense partnerships, exploring non-American technologies, and engaging diplomatically with regional rivals, including Iran.
This should worry Washington deeply, as American regional dominance relies heavily on consistent Gulf cooperation for military and intelligence activities. This era is potentially concluding. Trump’s transactional view of alliances has made Gulf rulers see relationships as cost-benefit analyses rather than long-term commitments.
If Gulf states become hesitant to host U.S. operations, America’s ability to exert influence in the Middle East may diminish considerably. Even with unmatched military equipment, effectiveness is limited without support and access. As Washington distances itself from NATO and Indo-Pacific allies while alarmingly Gulf partners, it risks isolating itself. The Gulf states are not severing ties with the U.S. but are redefining the relationship with more caution. The era of unquestioned cooperation is waning. Gulf allies no longer will serve as scapegoats for U.S. military campaigns while facing uncertain protection themselves. Once allies realize they can reject Washington’s demands, they rarely revert to automatic compliance.
Brahma Chellaney is the author of nine books, including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”
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