Americans are feeling less confident about the economy this month, according to recent data. The Conference Board reported a dip in its consumer confidence index, which fell to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June. This figure has remained largely unchanged throughout the year.
Earlier improvements in consumer attitudes had been linked to lower gas prices, which fell to approximately $3.70 per gallon in June. However, tensions in the Middle East have driven gas prices up again, reaching $4.10 per gallon.
The unrest began when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after attacks by the U.S. and Israel. This critical passageway normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil, and its closure triggered a rise in gas prices, affecting Americans’ purchasing power by contributing to inflation. After five years of high inflation, economic dissatisfaction persists, which could impact President Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
Trump attributes the inflation to former President Joe Biden, although inflation has increased since Trump’s inauguration. It stood at 3.5% in July, compared to 3% in January 2025. The Iran conflict has further driven inflation from the 2.4% rate seen in late February.
Consumer pessimism is evident in survey responses from July 1 to July 22. Although mentions of gas prices have decreased slightly, concerns about food costs remain high. Grocery prices have surged 33% since early 2019, resulting in significant lifestyle adjustments for many Americans.
Food inflation is evident, with ground beef prices jumping to $6.82 per pound in June—a 79% increase since the start of 2019.
Amid these economic challenges, employment insights offer mixed signals. Discussions about the job market picked up slightly. Although U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs last month, this increase was less than half of the previous month’s total. While the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%, the decrease reflected more individuals giving up job searches, thus leaving the unemployment statistics.
Mention of geopolitical conflicts in survey write-ins reduced this month. However, the Conference Board cautioned that sustained fighting between the U.S. and Iran may lead to more mentions in future surveys.