Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently announced that Ukrainian forces are holding more positions and inflicting increased damage on Russian troops. This upbeat assessment marks a shift in Ukraine’s war fortunes after concerns that reduced U.S. support might give Russian President Vladimir Putin an advantage.
Zelensky’s remarks on May 19 highlight significant changes in Kyiv’s favor, which seemed unlikely earlier this year. The stalled U.S.-led peace talks coincided with the Trump administration’s diminished support and Russia’s relentless winter strikes on Ukraine’s energy and infrastructure. However, Ukraine’s effective use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has mitigated the impact of decreased American aid. The success of drone strikes behind frontlines and deeper within Russia offers Kyiv renewed optimism.
Military analyst Giorgi Revishvili noted the gradual shift in war dynamics towards Ukraine compared to previous months. The situation now appears more favorable to Ukraine than last year.
Drone Production and Attacks Intensify
Ukraine’s defense ministry has reported a significant increase in the production of drones over the past year. These include reconnaissance, mid-strike, and deep-strike drone systems, as well as fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drones, which are proving effective at certain frontlines.
Matthew Arnold, director of the Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program, observed that Ukraine now holds the initiative in drone warfare. He stated that Ukraine is learning and adapting to deploy drones faster and more efficiently than Russia.
Revishvili highlighted Ukraine’s intensified mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics within occupied territories, targeting operational depths of 18 to 65 miles. This strategy pressures the Russian economy and disrupts logistics in the operational rear. Ukraine also seeks to undermine Moscow’s objective of establishing a land corridor between Crimea and Rostov by targeting Russian supply lines daily.
Critical Period Ahead
General Andriy Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, stated that maintaining momentum over several months could force Russia to abandon parts of the Donetsk region it claims. Ukrainian troops are currently holding strategic areas and forcing heavy losses on Russian forces.
Biletskyi emphasized the importance of improving positions and taking strategic points to gain leverage over Russia in negotiations. He warned that the upcoming six months are crucial for Ukraine’s campaign.
Revishvili suggested that sustained efforts by Ukraine might present significant challenges for Russian forces. Controlling strategic depths and weakening logistics can reduce Russia’s offensive momentum, potentially creating exploitable gaps.
Recent Ukrainian Gains
This year, Ukraine regained nearly 230 square miles of territory, while Russian advances slowed to 40 square miles, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Kyiv appears to challenge the war’s positional nature, potentially marking a new phase of the conflict with resecured drone advantages and tactical mechanized maneuvers.
Strikes Within Russia
Zelensky reported increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian defenses and logistics up to 120 miles behind the front since February, disrupting supply chains and delaying personnel and materials.
These strikes have targeted Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities and military-linked enterprises. LSE IDEAS program director, Arnold, commented on Ukraine’s strategy to challenge Putin’s perception of a low-cost war for Russia’s economy and society.
Putin’s Stance
Despite setbacks, Putin remains determined to capture the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions by autumn. He continues to call for Ukrainian troops to surrender, buoyed by possible misinformation from the Russian military command.
Revishvili noted that regions like Kostiantynivka remain challenging for Ukrainian defense, as Russian forces employ infiltration tactics and heavy bombardment. The battle for Donetsk carries political and military significance, and Russia must face both military and political setbacks.