Officials suggest the United States and Iran may be reaching an agreement to conclude the ongoing conflict and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump commented that the deal was largely negotiated. However, details about its finalization and implementation remain unclear. His remarks followed discussions with Middle Eastern allies, including a separate conversation with Israel.
The End of the War
Since the onset of conflict triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of significant figures like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has demanded that any deal should cease fighting across all fronts. This includes Lebanon, where Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has been in battle with Israel since shortly after the war began.
A fragile ceasefire has been maintained since April 7. Halting the conflict could alleviate concerns in a region that experienced missile and drone attacks by Iran on areas considered safe, like the UAE. The plan would enable global shipping, including 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, to move again through the Strait of Hormuz. Infrastructure could also be rebuilt.
Two regional officials indicate the draft agreement involves ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a commitment to non-interference in regional countries’ internal matters, including Iran. This relates to Iran’s support for allied forces like the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shia armies in Iraq. The US aims for Israel to have autonomy in responding to what it sees as threats in Lebanon, a stance Iran opposes. A US official affirms the deal would ensure Israel’s right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.
Gradual Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian nuclear program, missile development, and support for armed allies were cited as reasons for the US and Israeli attacks. Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz quickly became a global concern, as numerous ships carrying essential goods were stranded.
According to emerging plans, the strait would gradually be reopened as the US ends the blockade of Iranian ports initiated on April 17. This blockade has hindered Iran’s oil exports and access to much-needed financial resources. The US might let Iran sell oil with sanction relief, as per one informed official. Sanction relief and the unfreezing of Iranian funds would be negotiated over 60 days.
Iran’s Enriched Uranium Issue
The Iranian nuclear program raises tension globally, with concerns over potential weapon development. The US and Israel considered complex military operations to destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium.
The potential agreement may see Iran relinquishing this uranium. A source familiar with the negotiations mentioned that the method of relinquishment is still to be decided over 60 days, with possibilities including dilution or transfer to a third country like Russia. Russia has offered to handle the transfer. A 60-day period is confirmed by a US official, who warns that failure by Iran to surrender these reserves means no sanction relief.
Iran has 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a short step from weapons-grade levels. Iran maintains its declared right to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. President Masoud Pezeshkian reassured on national television that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.
President Trump posted that “our relationship with Iran is becoming more professional and productive, but they must understand not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.”
Omissions in the Agreement
Several significant topics remain unaddressed in the proposed deal, including the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment. Additionally, Iran’s missile program, which Israel aims to eliminate, is not mentioned. Although the US and Israel initially aimed to see a popular uprising in Iran earlier this year, potential regime change talks appear dismissed. Previous Iranian demands like US troop withdrawal and war reparations are also absent from the discussion.