President Vladimir Putin aims to convince President Trump of Russia’s progress in Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv should surrender the entire eastern Donbas to prevent defeat. However, the ground reality contrasts his statements.

Following gains at the end of last year, Russian military advancement has stalled. In certain Ukrainian regions, Russian forces have even retreated. Based on the current average monthly progress, it would take over three decades for Russia to fully control Donbas, which is a key condition set by the Kremlin for ending the conflict.

The slowdown might be seasonal. Russian forces generally gain momentum in the summer, benefiting from improved weather and foliage that offers more concealment from drones. Ukrainian authorities have recently alerted to Moscow’s preparation for more offensives, with increased activity across the front line.

Critically, Russia hasn’t addressed a vital challenge on the modern battlefield: making substantial gains while drones are prevalent. The former tactic of advancing with large troop formations in armored vehicles is no longer effective.