Over the past decade, a common observation about President Trump’s support has been that it tends to have a low ceiling but a solid floor. The most recent New York Times/Siena poll is now testing whether this high floor still holds.

In the current survey, only 37 percent of Americans express approval of his presidential performance. This marks a decrease of four percentage points since the last Times/Siena poll conducted in January, representing his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena survey across his terms.

While a decline of four points might not seem significant, it places Trump’s ratings in unfamiliar territory. Historically, presidential approval ratings have fluctuated, but none have remained below 38 percent for more than a few days in the last 17 years, according to average ratings. If there existed a baseline of support in this era of partisan politics, Trump’s current ratings are likely at that level.

It’s premature to determine if the ongoing conflict in Iran and high fuel prices will further erode his support, but these issues certainly threaten to push his approval ratings down. Only 28 percent of voters support his management of living costs, while a mere 31 percent approve of his approach to the conflict. Furthermore, only 30 percent believe he made the correct choice in deciding to engage militarily with Iran.

The immediate political impact is clear, with Democrats gaining a stronger position for the upcoming midterm elections in November. The poll reveals that Democrats hold a significant advantage, with 50 percent of registered voters indicating support for their congressional candidates compared to 39 percent favoring Republicans. This is a notable shift from earlier Times/Siena polls this cycle, where Democrats led by only two to five points.