Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina expressed skepticism about the Republican Party’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections, labeling it “almost statistically impossible” for the party to maintain control of the House. During an interview on MS NOW’s “The Beat” hosted by Ari Melber, Tillis discussed internal GOP divisions linked to President Trump.
“I’m supporting the president because he’s the head of the party, not because he’s Donald J. Trump, but because he is the face of our party,” Tillis stated. He emphasized his desire for the Republican Party to be well-positioned for future elections. “We’re going to take a little bit of a hit this season and recover from it, I believe,” he added.
Tillis, who is not seeking reelection, remarked on the improbability of Republicans reclaiming the House. However, he remained optimistic about the Senate, predicting a tight but favorable outcome for his party. “Because we’ve got great candidates in Maine, Ohio, Arkansas. They’ve just got to run hard and we’ve got to support them,” he said.
These comments arise amidst a challenging midterm atmosphere for GOP candidates, marked by Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular conflict in Iran, a tariff war with Canada, and persistent inflation concerns. The Senate race is considered highly competitive by polling averages. The Democratic Party requires at least four additional seats to regain Senate control, with key races in Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska remaining contentious.
Recent New York Times/Siena polling indicates Democrats leading by 6 points in Texas, 7 points in Alaska, and 3 points in Ohio. Conversely, they trail by 1 in Iowa and are even in Kansas. Notably, the Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas surveys have margins of error—4.5 points in Ohio, and 4.6 points in both Iowa and Kansas.
Tillis’s vacant seat is poised to be claimed by Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s former governor. Decision Desk HQ forecasts an 84 percent probability of Cooper flipping the seat. Additionally, they project a 76 percent likelihood of Democrats seizing the House and a 56 percent chance of retaking the Senate.