Interim Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman are leading the race in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary. A recent survey conducted on July 21 shows Graham with 20.8% support from likely Republican primary voters, followed by Norman at 16.9%. No candidate has reached a majority, indicating a likely runoff on August 25 after the special primary scheduled for August 11.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham on July 17, which influenced her decision to run for a full Senate term. Newsweek attempted to contact Graham’s and Norman’s campaigns to gain more insight.
A Rapid Campaign Following Lindsey Graham’s Passing
The special election was precipitated by the passing of Lindsey Graham, a long-serving GOP Senator, on July 11. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister to complete his term, initiating a fast-paced campaign for South Carolina’s first open Senate seat in decades. Initially seen as a placeholder, Graham’s position solidified when Trump endorsed her. Despite leading the poll, her position isn’t secure—17.8% of likely primary voters haven’t heard of her, and 31.3% haven’t formed an opinion.
A poll conducted by Resonance Media Services, led by Rick Quinn, surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Graham’s lead of 3.9 points falls within this margin, indicating no clear frontrunner.
Norman’s Strategic Position
Norman trails in the initial standings but holds strong potential for a runoff. The poll shows Norman with strong favorability and as a popular secondary choice. A prominent Trump ally, Norman was third in the recent gubernatorial primary and continues campaigning despite Trump’s backing of Graham. Other candidates’ support remains fragmented.
- Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette: 9.6%
- Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch: 7.2% each
- Former Governor Mark Sanford: 7.1%
- Representative Nancy Mace: 2.8%
- Attorney Duke Buckner: 0.9%
Sanford, a vocal Trump critic who challenged him in the 2020 presidential race, declared his Senate bid post-poll. Mace exited the race on Monday.
Conservative Endorsements
National figures show divided support. Graham has backing from Senator Tom Cotton, while Senator John Thune has expressed approval without formal endorsement. Norman garners support from conservative Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, highlighting party division.
General Election Outlook
As Republicans vie for the nomination, Democrat Annie Andrews, nominated on June 9, prepares for the November general election. She believes the costly GOP primary may benefit Democrats. Coastal Carolina University political scientist Justin Vaughn notes South Carolina’s strong Republican lean, maintaining a safe GOP Senate seat.
Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024, with Democrats last winning a Senate seat in 1998. As the August 11 primary nears, the race draws national attention due to its unpredictable nature and swift timeline.
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