Wisconsin Governor Race: A Tight Competition Between Tiffany and Crowley
A recent Marquette Law poll indicates a tight race between Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley for Wisconsin governor. These findings show the race is statistically tied. Tiffany’s recent divergence from President Donald Trump on key issues, such as beef imports and Lake Ontario’s renaming, adds complexity to the political landscape.
Poll Results
The poll shows Crowley leading with 49 percent among likely voters, while Tiffany follows closely behind with 46 percent. Undecided voters constitute 5 percent. Among registered voters, Crowley leads slightly with 46 percent against Tiffany’s 45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error stands at 4.8 percent for likely voters and 4.3 percent for registered voters.
Midterm Election Dynamics
Midterm elections often test the political landscape for the party in power. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during these elections. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Wisconsin’s gubernatorial seat is held by retiring two-term Democratic Governor Tony Evers. Both parties are eager to win the seat.
Campaign Perspectives
Crowley’s campaign manager, Garren Randolph, commented on significant spending by Trump-aligned billionaires supporting Tiffany. Despite this, Crowley’s campaign remains strong, emphasizing Tiffany’s allegiance to billionaires over Wisconsinites.
In contrast, Tiffany argues against Crowley’s tax record and pledges to return a $3 billion surplus, lower property taxes, and cut income taxes for working families.
The poll reflects shifts in voter support from last month. Tiffany gained support among Republicans, while Crowley’s backing among independents fell notably.
Trump’s Influence
Trump’s approval rating continued to decline, with disapproval at 60 percent. Democrats aim to leverage Trump’s sinking approval to their advantage with the midterm elections approaching.
Polling Details
The poll was conducted from September 16-23, 2026, among 843 registered voters in Wisconsin and 692 likely voters.
Tiffany’s Break from Trump
Tiffany recently split from Trump on several issues. Among these is his disagreement with an executive order renaming Lake Ontario, raising tensions with Canada. Tiffany maintains Wisconsin’s lakes should retain their historic names.
Regarding data centers, Tiffany disagrees with Trump’s push for welcoming them due to subsidy concerns. He argues that subsidies could burden Wisconsin’s taxpayers.
Trump announced plans to waive beef import tariffs to lower prices. Tiffany supports local farmers and opposes penalizing them with foreign beef competition.
Additional Polls
Other polls, including those by Platform Communications and RMG Research, show close results, further indicating a competitive race. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as a toss-up.