As the end of September approaches, we stand on the brink of the 2026-2027 winter season. Despite mild weather now, winter is inevitable, and its characteristics remain uncertain.

Forecasts from the Almanacs

The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac offer differing forecasts. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts varied precipitation across the U.S., with snow in the upper Plains and Midwest, and wet conditions in the Gulf and southern East Coast. Coastal storms are anticipated in New England. The Old Farmer’s Almanac foresees mild weather for much of the U.S., with colder conditions confined to the Ohio Valley region and southern New England, while Hawaii may be cool. Dry weather is expected in the Plains, alongside wet conditions on the Pacific Coast, parts of the Gulf, and the Midwest.

Accuracy of Almanac Forecasts

Both almanacs claim an 80% accuracy rate, yet research indicates only half of the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions have been correct. Meteorologist Rich Segal highlights the unpredictability of long-range forecasts, likening it to a gamble.

Insights from the National Weather Service

The National Weather Service provides long-range weather outlooks, but these are subject to modification. They do not forecast specific events like major winter storms. Jon Gottschalck from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center notes the impossibility of forecasting specific events.

NOAA released seasonal forecasts revealing warmer-than-normal temperatures, influenced by El Niño. Southern states may experience above-average precipitation, whereas northern states will likely be drier and warmer. Despite predictions, intermittent colder air may affect the central U.S. and northern Plains, bringing colder temperatures and some snow.

Impacts of El Niño

El Niño, which may persist into spring 2027, affects weather patterns differently across the U.S. Northern states will generally be warmer and drier, while southern states will likely be cooler and wetter. Despite the prevalence of El Niño, cold air intrusions and some snow will still occur in northern regions.

The Reliability of Almanac Predictions

The decision to trust almanac predictions lies with individuals. Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, emphasizes the utility of their forecasts for planners and outdoor enthusiasts, acknowledging nature’s ultimate unpredictability.