A recent national poll reveals that Vice President JD Vance holds a strong lead in the 2028 Republican presidential primary field. Although election plans are not yet formalized, Vance has gained significant support.
The Big Data Poll indicates Vance leading with 35.4% support, significantly ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 16.5%. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 29.1%, surpassing California Governor Gavin Newsom who stands at 15%.
Republican Field Dynamics
Vance’s lead demonstrates his prominence within the Republican Party, appealing to likely voters. Despite his current lead, the nomination race remains open. High-profile Republicans like Rubio are potential contenders if they decide to run.
The poll shows Vance ahead of other notable Republicans, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. DeSantis has 7.1% support, Kennedy Jr. 6.5%, and Cruz 4.4%. A large portion of voters, 12.1%, remain undecided.
Vance leads Rubio across key demographics, such as men, women, Hispanics, Republicans, and Independents.
Democratic Field Overview
While Harris is the early Democratic favorite, Newsom and other figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg have captured notable support. No Democratic candidate has formally announced plans to run.
Past surveys echo Harris’s lead, reflecting her consistent early frontrunner status within the Democratic field.
Early Poll Cautions
Analysts remind that early polls measure current recognition and party standing rather than predict eventual nominees. With over two years until primaries begin, the field remains open.
Vance on 2028 Candidacy
Vance has yet to confirm a 2028 run, maintaining focus on his current role in the administration. In interviews, he has emphasized making future decisions post-midterms.
During an interview with Megyn Kelly, Vance acknowledged the possibility of making a decision after the midterms. In conversations with CBS Sunday Morning, Vance expressed confidence in receiving support from the President for future decisions.
When discussing a potential Vance-Rubio ticket with Newsweek, Vance noted public concerns about transitioning roles too quickly, indicating hesitance in publicly considering future candidacies.