Two years ago, Ukrainian soldiers embarked on a significant mission. Their goal was to take a piece of Russian territory. They initiated an offensive from Sumy, crossing into Russia’s Kursk region. They quickly controlled over 500 square miles of Russian land. This move marked the first breach of Russia’s borders since World War II, giving Kyiv bargaining power amid potential ceasefire discussions.
By February 2025, Russian forces had nearly expelled Ukrainian troops from Kursk, except for a small area. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky then met with the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump. In the present, U.S. negotiators are preparing to visit Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky has submitted a new peace proposal to Washington, aiming to leverage U.S. pressure on Russia.
Strategic Shifts in Ukrainian Military Tactics
The initial objective of the Kursk offensive was to secure critical leverage. Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted the importance of Ukraine’s position for future negotiations. Despite the operation’s eventual failure, Ukraine learned from the experience. Since then, they have refrained from large-scale cross-border operations, except into Belgorod.
Instead, Ukraine leverages its advancements in drone and missile technology. This allows them to target Russian infrastructure without occupying territory. Ukraine has intensified its strike campaigns. Between January and July, the number of long-range attacks tripled. A drone attack recently targeted a warehouse in Yekaterinburg, located over 1,200 miles from the Ukrainian border.
In a major operation, Ukrainian forces targeted Novorossiysk, damaging key Russian maritime assets. Russia’s defenses reported downing over 500 Ukrainian drones, but significant damage occurred nonetheless. This strategy relies on overwhelming Russian air defenses, as noted by Emily Ferris of RUSI.
Economic and Diplomatic Dimensions
Ukraine’s operations in Novorossiysk had a strategic component. The city is a gateway for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, pivotal for Kazakh crude oil flow. The pipeline’s significance to U.S. energy interests, particularly amidst global turmoil, led Ukraine to avoid striking this infrastructure.
Kyiv communicates its ability to impact strategic hubs while respecting U.S. interests. The U.S. supplies Ukraine with needed interceptors, yet Kyiv now offers favors in return. Moreover, Ukraine’s technology, particularly drones, is attracting U.S. military interest. Together with European partners, Ukraine is also exporting technology, supporting its economy and defense capabilities.
Ukraine’s defense industry leverages rapid feedback, an advantage honed through ongoing conflict, unlike traditional manufacturing timelines.
Challenges and Future Prospects
Russia still presents significant challenges. Despite economic issues, its defense capabilities remain robust. Russia maintains a larger army and can gradually advance in eastern Ukraine. This slow progress has coincided with a moratorium on additional military mobilization since September 2022.
Putin has deferred fresh mobilization due to its unpopularity. However, post-October elections may change this situation, allowing potential mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers as per Ukrainian intelligence. Kyiv’s technology provides strategic advantages but does not substitute for manpower.
Zelensky, in future meetings with Trump, will need further support like Patriot missiles. Nevertheless, Ukraine possesses newfound leverage, demonstrating its evolving strategic approach within this complex geopolitical landscape.