The United States has underestimated its munitions expenditure in the conflict with Iran. Over a ten-week period, and during sporadic confrontations thereafter, the Army has used most of its long-range ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles.

Currently, the Army also faces a significant shortage of THAAD and Patriot air defense systems. The Navy is dealing with a reduced stock of Tomahawk land attack and Standard air defense missiles. Meanwhile, the Air Force has experienced a deficit in joint air-to-surface standoff missiles.

In response, the War Department has initiated long-term agreements with industry to boost production of THAAD, Patriot, and other critical munitions. A notable agreement involves a contract with Lockheed-Martin for substantial Patriot missile production, potentially valued at $59 billion over seven years, concluding in 2032. This contract aims to triple Raytheon’s existing production rate by the end of 2030. Lockheed-Martin plans to increase its workforce by 50% and either enhance or establish 20 new plants.

Another agreement involves RTX, Raytheon’s parent company. In February, it committed to raise annual Tomahawk production to at least 1,000 units from the current 60 units annually. Raytheon will also increase AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missile production from 1,200 to over 1,900 missiles. Standard Missile SM-6 production will rise from 300 to 500 annually, up from about 150 previously.

RTX has also noted plans to increase SM-3 IIA production and accelerate SM-3 IB production, though specific figures are not provided.

The munitions shortages stem from three main factors. Initially, post-Cold War policymakers believed munitions needs would decline. Furthermore, the Pentagon frequently reallocated munitions funds for other programs. Finally, past military actions underestimated munitions use, especially in Iraq and against the Houthis to keep the Red Sea open for commercial routes.

The Biden administration recognized the flaw in just-in-time munitions production policy, and began ramping up efforts accordingly. Support from the Trump administration and Congress also increased resources for munitions production.

Despite the War Department’s new agreements, accelerating production remains challenging. Subcontractors need investment for expanded facilities, and both contractors and lower-tier subcontractors may struggle to find necessary workers. Lockheed’s attempt to meet Patriot targets will not complete until 2030. Other contractors also face production challenges before reaching their targets.

The U.S. continues to face global threats, notably from Russia, China, and potentially Iran and its proxies.

The Pentagon’s focus includes enhancing strategic and conventional warfare capabilities, such as nuclear submarines, battleships, bombers, missile defenses, and advanced systems. However, doubt exists whether this focus on munitions will persist.

There is a risk that once hostilities with Iran subside, foundational complacency might return, redirecting munitions funds to other programs. Both the administration and Congress must work to prevent this complacency, ensuring readiness for future conflicts.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He previously served as undersecretary of Defense and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense.