Predictions on Gas Prices Following the Iran Conflict
President Donald Trump expressed optimism about a significant drop in gasoline prices after the conflict with Iran concludes. On May 11, during a statement in the Oval Office, he projected prices would ‘drop like a rock.’ However, energy experts warn this scenario might not unfold as quickly as the president indicates.
At the time of his statement, the nationwide average price for a gallon of regular gas was $4.52. Analysts, however, predict that even if the conflict ended immediately, prices are unlikely to revert to pre-war levels before the year ends.
Current and Past Gasoline Price Trends
Prior to the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, the national average for a gallon of gas in the U.S. stood at $2.98. Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), noted that Americans might not see such prices until the latter half of 2027.
Gas prices were decreasing steadily before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. The White House championed these reductions as successes of the Trump administration. However, the conflict reversed this positive trend.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran severely affected global oil production and supply, contributing to higher oil and gas prices worldwide. The strait previously facilitated about 20% of the world’s oil supply. Since February 28, its traffic has diminished significantly.
This week, the national average gas price hovered around $4.5, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), reflecting a $1.5 increase since late February.
In California, the average price was over $6 per gallon, while in Mississippi, it was slightly below $4.00.
Factors Influencing Future Gas Prices
Experts agree that ending the conflict with Iran alone will not normalize gas prices. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that restoring regular traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is vital.
Even with optimal conditions, he predicts several months, possibly years, before prices return to pre-war levels. De Haan emphasized that once the strait reopens, it would take weeks to re-establish oil shipments. In an optimistic scenario, oil flow normalization could take weeks and possibly longer.
Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen immediately, the earliest tankers might traverse the strait would be June, with cargoes arriving by July. Achieving pre-war prices, however, could extend beyond a year.
Recently, minor improvements in oil and gas prices emerged, potentially due to Trump’s comments on negotiations to end the war. Yet, oil analysts watch these price reductions cautiously.
Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, noted that despite decreasing prices, December 2026 Brent futures remained close to $80 per barrel, a drop from approximately $88 last week but still higher than pre-conflict figures.
De Haan advised prudence, stating that without a formal agreement and increased oil transit through the strait, gas prices might remain over $4 per gallon.