The price of U.S. crude oil decreased by 2.7% on Monday, reaching approximately $74 per barrel. This shift followed an announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the implementation of a 60-day waiver on sanctions for the purchase of Iranian oil. This marked the first time crude prices had dipped below the $75 mark since early March.
International Brent crude prices also saw a decline, dropping 4% to around $77 per barrel. This represents the lowest level since the conflict with Iran began. However, both U.S. and Brent crude prices continue to stay above their prewar levels of $62 and $68 per barrel, respectively.
According to Kpler, data from the Strait of Hormuz indicated 17 crossings on Sunday. This number fell from 35 crossings on Saturday and 19 on Friday.
On Monday, through a statement on social media, Bessent conveyed that Iran had assured “free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz.” Nevertheless, market optimism might still be hasty as discussions concerning the strait and broader regional military postures remain changeable.
On Saturday, Iran once more threatened to close the strait in response to ongoing Israeli activities in Lebanon. Over the weekend, there was a gradual recovery in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although volumes stayed well below prewar numbers. Based on data from an international group, the average number of vessels transiting daily from Friday to Sunday was 23, as recorded by Kpler, which oversees the MarineTraffic website.
These figures reflect a significant rise from the single-digit transits at the height of the conflict in April. Yet, they are still below the prewar average daily count of 130 vessels. On Sunday, 17 crossings were reported, with 35 on Saturday and 19 on Friday. Kpler highlighted that most ships preferred routes authorized by Iran or opted to deactivate their transponders when passing through the waterway.
“The key point is not that traffic stopped, but that traffic continued while using less standard/less transparent routing,” noted Kpler in a statement.
Other crucial commodities are also approaching prewar levels. The commodities group Argus reported that the price of urea, a significant component of fertilizer, has dropped by 50% from the peak prices observed in April.