The United Nations has recognized that Earth can no longer avoid some effects of global warming. The world must find ways to reduce temperatures to safer levels, according to U.N. officials.

The 2015 Paris climate accord set a temperature threshold to avoid severe climate impacts. However, the latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report indicates this safe limit is at risk due to ongoing use of coal, oil, and gas.

Humanity is speeding past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe, said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.

Instead of surrendering, scientists and U.N. officials suggest limiting extreme warming and eventually reducing temperatures to the agreed-upon levels. This will still result in increased weather-related disasters, rising sea levels, species extinctions, and ice melt.

The new strategy envisions ending fossil fuel use and developing methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and report co-author, stated, We have to live with this warmer world, but there’s still a lot we can do to limit warming.

Beyond the Warming Threshold

The United Nations requested its climate science team study different warming limits after the Paris agreement. Experts agreed on a 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) target above mid-19th-century temperatures, recognizing severe impacts at 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit).

Currently, Earth is at 1.4 C (2.5 F) above pre-industrial levels based on a 20-year average. Though initially hopeful about sticking to the 1.5 target, the report admits it will be crossed soon.

The optimistic scenario predicts 1.8 C (3.2 F) peak warming if countries follow strict climate goals. However, current government actions may see 2.6 C (4.7 F) warming by 2100.

The U.N. now urges policymakers to prepare for a future exceeding the 1.5-degree limit. Global temperatures will pass the threshold soon, peak, and ideally drop below 1.5 degrees by the century’s end.

Managing ‘Overshoot’

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized, 1.5 target is still the goal. We need to approach it from above.

University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver stated that every tenth of a degree avoided still reduces damage.

Key to this strategy is limiting peak temperatures and reducing time above the 1.5-degree mark. The overshoot period is expected to last for decades, said report co-author Joeri Rogelj.

Every five-year delay in reducing emissions adds a tenth of a degree to warming. Acting now can limit overshoot, making the situation somewhat safer.

Adapting to a More Challenging World

Governments must enhance efforts to adapt to worsened climate conditions, particularly affecting the poor. Andersen refers to this phase as “coping and containment.”

The overshoot period will see more deaths and illnesses, decreased food production, increased hunger, water shortages, economic disruptions, and biodiversity loss.

Complex triggers behind incidents like Nepal’s glacier-linked flooding will likely become more frequent.

The report highlights “tipping points” with irreversible effects, including the loss of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, Amazon forest loss, and changes to the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Some areas may become uninsurable or uninhabitable.

Cooling the Planet

The final phase involves removing carbon dioxide from the air. The report notes traditional tree planting only offers minor global temperature reductions. Innovative carbon removal solutions are required.

Some scientists find these solutions unreliable and costly.

Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson comments, Overshoot scenarios require us to stop the emissions train quickly and reverse course. Best hope? Yes. Likely? No.